Aliyev returning empty-handed from Washington decided to seek adventure
Why does Azerbaijan escalate the situation at times, particularly in the Nagorno-Karabakh-Azerbaijan contact line? The general answer to this question is simple. Because if no military messages periodically appear from Karabakh into the global newsfeed, the world will forget about this problem and in that case, the status quo will be maintained for decades. Is Ilham Aliyev concerned about this issue very much? Probably, not. At least, not as much as his father who was trying to resolve this problem. Ilham does not do such real attempts, he just wants Artsakh issue to be talked about. Why? The reasons are varied. But one of the most important, of course, is the internal situation in his country. Azerbaijan is a closed country. Unlike us, it is not allowed there to speak loudly about mounting economic problems.
But in the 21st century, in the availability of Internet, hiding anything becomes almost impossible. Oil prices have dropped and there is no sign that it will be more than 50 dollars per barrel in the coming years. Azerbaijan has no other economic resources, the “first signs” of the social discontent are already available and it is impossible to stop this process. In addition to the oil dollars, there are other tools to close the mouth of the people. It remains to pretend that Azerbaijan is “liberating the Azerbaijani” lands. But the reasons for the Azerbaijani military activeness are not only internal. As we know, Baku’s relations with the West and primarily with the United States has been deteriorated in recent years because of the gross violations of human rights.
In the meantime, Aliyev has repeatedly accused the West of double standards and hypocrisy. It can also be argued that his complaints addressed to the OSCE Minsk Group should also be “deciphered” first of all as complaints addressed to the American co-chair James Warlick. Prior to the visit to Washington, Azerbaijani president, however, showed some “good will” by releasing several political prisoners.
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Apparently, he hoped that thus he will create a positive background for the meetings with US Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry. But the “good will” did not help. Last week, after his visit to Washington, Aliyev was not hiding his disappointment. What happened in Washington? Certainly, I can only make assumptions. But the problem, however, is as follows: in Washington, they made it clear for Aliyev that a/ the United States is against unleashing of conflicts regularly bursting in Armenian-Azerbaijani border and NKR-Azerbaijan line of contact and insists on the establishment of mechanisms for their prevention, b/ the United States as well as France and Russia is reluctant to propose a better plan for the Karabakh conflict settlement than exists, while there is a clause in the proposed project about the status of Artsakh which is unacceptable for Baku. Incidentally, this clause was alluded by Secretary of State John Kerry in the conversation with Aliyev.
On the other hand, I do not think that Russia is particularly pleased with Baku which in the Syrian conflict, despite the official “neutrality”, is openly supporting Turkey and the pro-Turkish “moderate opposition”. The CSTO’s reaction to the recent escalation in the line of contact is its indirect proof. In spite of our commentators having overly negative emotions towards Russia, I think that at this point, Russia is unlikely to be interested in the escalation of the situation. While Turkey, which also returned from Washington empty-handed, yes, is highly interested to see “explosions” in the region in order to increase its slightly shaken role. And so, returning from Washington, Aliyev expressed his indignation in this, let me say, criminal manner, “Well, if the world does not want to move as I want, then, look what I’m going to do.” It is neither the first nor the last adventure.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN, “Aravot” daily
