The enemy fired with the weapon given by the “strategic ally”
On the night of April 1-2 was held what were warned long ago. By giving several billion by the hyper-revenues of the oil to our strategic ally Russia over the last few years, junior Aliyev gained a large amount of weapons. This weapon could bot but fire one day.
But why now? Why on that very day when both Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev were to come back to Yerevan after the completion of the meetings in the US for the Nuclear Summit.
The reasons are superficial. If there are no significant irregularities in the results of Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to strengthen the US-Armenia relations, in addition to Russian known restrictions, then the results of Aliyev’s visit are remarkable by the fact that they must be divided into two parts.
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As for the future oil projects, attractive suggestions were made to Aliyev and here, we can put a “plus”. However, it is clear that no multi-billion dollar project cannot work in a region where the beneficiary of the project must continue to destabilize the situation in its own country by the African level corruption and repression as well as continue to destabilize the region with its maximalist and militant policy associated with the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. And Biden and Kerry warned Aliyev that the only the peaceful way leads to the settlement, and it requires accepting the Minsk Group proposals associated with the international control mechanisms in the line of contact. And without this, no major energy project can work. It also means that Azerbaijan accepting this proposal will be deprived of the lever of blackmailing by war, which is unimaginable for Aliyev. And here, we must put a big “minus”.
Being excited by the US inexorability, nothing was left for Aliyev but to “turn over the table”. But no major efforts require imagining the unpredicted consequences of doing it arbitrarily. Therefore, it is impossible without the consent of the elder “brother”. A natural question arises: who is the elder “brother” that has so much influence. The United States, Russia, or Turkey?
Americans can be eliminated from this series just from the beginning because the Americans are the initiators of the idea to introduce mechanisms in the line of contact. Who is left, Turkey and Russia? Erdoğan who faces a real opposition, more or less free and influential media, Syrian challenges, the Kurdish guerrilla movement in the country where there are no own energy carriers but there are oil and gas pipelines coming from Azerbaijan. It is clear that the rhetoric, “Turkic brotherhood”, “one nation two states” but nice words will also be voiced but the significant destabilization in the South Caucasus, even not in Nagorno-Karabakh may significantly jeopardize Turkey and not only in the sense of energy security. Especially, given the current Russian-Turkish crisis.
We may not like Erdoğan, to question him in thousand and one things and do not doubt in his stressed negative attitude towards Armenia but it is undeniable that he will not take an action that the negative consequences are very obvious for his country and his regime. Speaking of the “brotherhood” every other day, eventually, does not commit to anything but brings significant internal political dividends, especially when the issue of constitutional amendments in Turkey is ahead.
Remains Russia. What is Moscow’s interest? Moscow is contraindicated both a full-scale war or peace in the Karabakh conflict. Moscow needs a manageable instability, the control panel of which will be in its hands, and based on necessity, the “temperature” of this instability can be raised or lowered. After “offending” Aliyev in the US, moreover in the issue where Moscow also loses and loses heavily and irreversibly, the increase of the “temperature” became just an imperative.
In addition, there is one more context in this unprecedented escalation. Iran. Aggravating the situation in the South Caucasus, Moscow and Baku want to show Iran and its potential consumers of enormous energy resources that there is no need to think about the possible routes passing by the region as long as it is not agreed with Putin and Aliyev. And it is also here that Moscow’s and Baku’s interests coincide both in time and space. Ultimately, the Minsk Group efforts that are not to the liking of Moscow and Baku is a fact.
And Moscow’s earlier efforts to bring the negotiations from the Minsk Group plane to the Russian-Azerbaijani business field have years of experience, it is also a fact. As well as it is a fact that the Armenian-Azerbaijani meetings in the Russian platform were preceded by the manageable destabilization…
And the rifle hanging on the wall fired. Our opponent fired with the weapon given by our “strategic ally”, by the advice of our “strategic ally” and fired in our direction.
The enemy is the same. While the ally … The only true and strategic ally of Armenia’s society is also the same: the Armenian Soldier who fulfills his mission cordially and with glory. Only, for the love of God, do not call the northern “businessmen” of the weapon a “strategic ally”, it is a mortal sin.
Ruben MEHRABYAN, “Aravot” daily
