The coming days will show which are the real objectives of the Russian “mission”
We were presented that the agreement to cease the hostilities between the Karabakh-Azerbaijani conflict forces on the line of contact is reached as a result of the meeting of Heads of General Staff of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The agreement to cease the hostilities is neither a ceasefire nor a lasting cease-fire guarantee. In these days, we see that the enemy continues its aggression in the direction of the borders of Armenia and Karabakh. The co-chairs are in the region, they are trying to calm down the situation. Russian separate mediation mission is obvious.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was in Baku. He stated that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement encounters serious challenges, “It is important to calm down the situation in this particular issue, more actively, I hope that the recent days’ events will push us to be engaged in the political settlement. We have proposals that we, together with the co-chairs, are trying to engage more actively in order to achieve an agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” In this situation, however, Lavrov has not forgotten to remind Aliyev about the invitation to visit Russia. “He (Vladimir Putin), by the way, conveys the warmest greetings to us and reminds that you have an invitation to visit Russia,” he said.
Yerevan officially has clearly presented its posture. Firstly, the tripartite ceasefire treaty signed in 1994 between Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan must be strictly respected, all hostilities must be stopped, and the Armenian and Azerbaijani units should return to their currently occupied quarters by April 1, 2016. Secondly, it is urgently necessary to create a mechanism to investigate the ceasefire violations, and the competencies of the personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict matters should be expanded, incidentally, by increasing the number of field assistants. Thirdly, the Nagorno-Karabakh government is the signatory to the 1994 ceasefire treaty, hence, all the conflicting parties must restore direct contacts with Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Does Moscow in the scope of its “political settlement” consider the aforementioned three principle elements presented by strategic ally Armenia in Russia’s current mediation activities? Is Moscow against the mechanisms (refused by Baku) of investigating the border incidents to operate in the line of contact? Is Moscow for Nagorno-Karabakh’s return to the negotiation table? If Moscow’s answer to these questions is positive, then we can say that Russia supports Armenia’s interests in the negotiations, if not, then we all have reasons to think, to the point, the next reason to think over. In these days, some Russia officials have announced that Russia should no longer sell weapons to Azerbaijan. These are cheap statements unless they are voiced if not at the level of Putin then, at least, at Shoigu’s level. The “crushing” reasoning of the advocates in Armenia that the sale of weapons to Azerbaijan worth of 5 billion dollars as a “Russian business” was that “if Russia had not sold it, Azerbaijan would buy it from other countries…”
Let them buy it, “other countries” are not a strategic ally of Armenia but Russia itself. So what? Is our grief consoled and comforted by the fact that the Armenian soldiers and Armenian civilians are killed from the brutal Russian weapon and not by the weapons of “other countries”? Or, when it was said with a thoughtful expression of face that “Russia controls Azerbaijan by selling these weapons.” In other words, can we now state that the war unbridled already one week since April 2 by Azerbaijan is implemented under the direct control of Russia? The pathetic speeches under the conditions of war and aggression, of course, are inspiring, perhaps also, are necessary but our society proved that it does not need it, and is conscious of protecting the victorious war at the cost of blood again. But in this situation, it should not be allowed to “break” the outbreak of Armenians unity and patriotism. Azerbaijan was unable to do it 25 years ago and now.
It remains that the political players “do not break” the position of the Armenian side in the framework of “political settlement”. It should not be allowed by the official Yerevan. We have no allies in the CSTO and EaEU. They even have refrained from the idea of going to Yerevan on these days to win Aliyev favor. We are alone in this war but it does not mean that the “political settlement” should not be in favor of us. The aggressor has been punished in the battlefield by waging this war and receiving a deserved counterattack. But if the “interested” parties try to conceal Aliyev’s responsibility in the context of the “political settlement”, it will mean that they are saving Aliyev, once again giving him a “carte blanche” for further escalations. In the coming days, it will be clearer to what extent Putin is “peacemaking” in this “surprise” war and the true objectives of Russia’s mediatory “mission”.
EMMA GABRIELYAN, “Aravot” daily
