Polish political expert analyzes the causes of the war launched in Karabakh
“Geopolitical events that are taking place in the Middle East are now having an impact on the South Caucasus and the situation further deteriorates,” said the expert of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Konrad Zashtovt, in an exclusive interview with “Aravot”. These days, he was closely following the war launched by Azerbaijani in Karabakh-Azerbaijan border and the subsequent international responses.
He notes that we have already seen attempts at solving the territorial problem by military means in the Crimea and Donbass, “It’s the beginning of destabilization of the situation,” said the Polish expert. He seeks the reason for the created situation in Azerbaijan’s domestic political problems. “We see that the society in Azerbaijan is in a very difficult situation because of the economic problems, crisis and dropping in oil prices. We know that oil is the key element in the economy of Azerbaijan, hence, the Azerbaijani authorities want to distract the public from these problems, they want the public to be perplexed about the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. And it is precisely for this reason that the Azerbaijani authorities are exacerbating the situation,” says Konrad Zashtovt.
To our observation that from the very first days of the escalation of the situation on Nagorno-Karabakh, the international community took a neutral posture, the calls for peace were directed to the both sides and not only to the launcher of the war, Mr. Zashtovt replied, “The OSCE Minsk Group that deals with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, we see that it has no major impact on this issue. I do not know whether changing the format of the conflict solution will solve the problem or not but it still has not changed the situation in any way. The problem in its place, it is not moving, the negotiations are also in their place. There was no major pressure by the OSCE Minsk Group.”
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The Polish expert points out the role of the Russian Federation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, saying that the key player in this situation is Russia which is considered to be Armenia’s military partner. “But here we must understand the disappointment causes of Yerevan. There was also a very weak response from the CSTO. This response to such escalation of the situation after 1994 was very weak,” says Mr. Zashtovt.
As to how such problems should be solved, the available negotiation format led to a war, the war does not solve the problem, our interlocutor replied, “The available geopolitical events that we are talking about do not allow this problem to be solved. We know that there were states in Europe that were in conflict for decades, such as Germany with France, now they are living like friends and those problems are gone to be past. Certainly, the situation in Europe is different from the situation in the South Caucasus. Here, Russia is the key player. Russia has a great role in this matter but it is not interested in solving the problem because this problem is a very handy tool for Russia to have an impact on Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
To our observation that people in Russia argue that Azerbaijan launched was by the urgings of Turkey to impose provocation over Russia, to spoil the relations of Russia with Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Polish expert, keeping true to his opinion, replied, “I do not agree with it. Of course, Turkey will try to support Azerbaijan because they are connected with ethnic, cultural, economic and other ties but the situation was not aggravated by Turkey’s urging.”
Hripsime HOVHANNISYAN
“Aravot” Daily
