Despite the people with political interest, it seems to me that Azerbaijan failed to achieve its military objectives in the 4-day war. It will fail also during the next attack, which I think is not far off, literally and figuratively. Certainly, the opponent can announce that it was occupied Fizuli, Talish or Mataghis but we know the truth.
In short, no matter how it is unpleasant for some people living in Armenia and beyond Armenia, Azerbaijan’s military plans have failed. What were they based on? Certainly, first of all, on the external factors. The rival knew and still knows that the co-chair countries would look through the fingers at its attack if not encouraging.
But Azerbaijan also has calculations that were associated with the internal life of Armenia. They were sure that 1/ the socio-economic situation in Armenia is catastrophic, 2/ the internal political struggle has reached such intensity that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow there will be a change of power, 3/ unhappy and disappointed people will not help out its countrymen facing the danger of genocide.
Where does the rival pick up this information? First of all, I think from open source of Armenia: Facebook, websites, newspapers, speeches at the National Assembly. Armenia is not Azerbaijan, here people write and say what they want and therefore, in order to distinguish between true and false, particular mental efforts are required. Suppose, former Armenian citizens living abroad who has not been in the homeland for 20 years, posts on his Facebook page, “the aunt of my godfather’s brother-in-law has called me yesterday telling that people in Armenia are falling on the street fainted from hunger.” After which, 10 websites make this a “news”: “URGENT. DISSEMINATE. The aunt of Poghos’s godfather’s brother-in-law fainted from hunger in Abovyan Street in front of the presidential residence.” After this, several opposition commentators write a “comprehensive analysis” based on this “fact”. There is nothing bizarre in all this, this phenomenon exists in all more or less democratic countries in the world. Simply, those who report to the decision-makers in Azerbaijan on the situation of Armenia are guided by such information.
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Or, an opposition MP announces at the Parliament that “4 hours and 15 minutes are left for the withdrawal of the criminal regime.” Azerbaijan, without delving into the situation, is thinking, “aha, now it will start.” Or, they see the protests of citizens, listen to the grave (mostly, justified) accusations against the government authorities and think, these people, their husbands and sons will not go to protect their native land. In short, they do not fully understand the psychology of our people.
Certainly, we have grave and urgent problems that require a solution, which must be talked about openly and sincerely. Anyway, our rival’s ideas about them are far away from reality.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
