According to the former head of RA MFA NATO Division, expert of the Armenian Center for Democracy, Security and Development, Marta Ayvazyan, in addition to purchasing arms, it is also necessary to organize domestic production of certain weapons and take immediate actions for the rehabilitate of the army
– On April 2, some time after the war unleashed by Azerbaijan, Yerevan officially presented its posture that it is early to speak about the resumption of talks, without Stepanakert no one can achieve complete solution. The following preconditions were presented for the resumption of talks: restoration of confidence, introducing investigation mechanisms, targeted statements, guarantees that Azerbaijan will not initiate a new aggression and terrorism against Nagorno-Karabakh people. What is the impact of Armenian’s this kind of tough posture on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Azerbaijan’s behavior?
– First, we must try to understand what is the reason for this kind of toughening of Armenia’s posture, therefore, we should also address the causes and results of the four-day war. In my opinion, it is less likely if not impossible that the Armenian side, more exactly Serzh Sargsyan, would change his position under the influence of some forces and made such abrupt and negotiation process excluding statements without agreeing with Russia. It is also excluded that our authorities, particularly the leadership of the Armed Forces and Serzh Sargsyan were not informed about the planned attack. Such an attack requires several months of preparatory work and could not go unnoticed. The fact that having this information they did not take the necessary steps to strengthen the frontline and to possibly protect the lives of soldiers speaks of either their absolute incompetence or which is more likely, their involvement in the plan for the implementation of the goal to attack, which in any other country would be qualified right up to state betrayal. However, the planned short victorious war failed, which were to end up with signing of an agreement by conflicting parties proposed by Russia, the content of which is known to everybody and inter alia provides a return of territories and the deployment of peacekeepers, and Russia would represent as the sole mediator for the establishment of peace. It took place mainly thanks to the human factor: the Armenian soldier’s bravery, self-sacrifice, amazing fighting ability as well as an unexpected large flow of volunteers heading to the front. However, this failure in no way means that the initiators of the attack will step back from their current plans for the implementation of their objectives to achieve through hostilities. Given the current situation and also the international reaction to these incidents, voiced tough estimates which are clearly in favor of Armenia, I do not think that the other side will be guided by the same scenario in the near future, in other words, at least in the eyes of the international community, it will again take on the role of initialing the attack and the violator of the ceasefire and will resume large-scale hostilities along the frontline. This is not favorable for Russia and Azerbaijan and is fraught with unpredictable consequences for them. More likely, an attempt will be made to create an appropriate situation for the implementing of the plan through the hostilities initiated by the Armenian side. In this sense, a suffice dangerous and favorable situation for the implementation of such a plan is created in the Armenian positions, on the one hand, the regular army and on the other hand, the armed militia units, squads under subordination of different commanders, the systemic management of which is a complex and difficult task. Under tense situation and such conditions, it is not difficult to achieve their goals through provocation.
– Do you consider the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to the negotiation table as well as achieving the recognition of NKR after the 4-day war in April possible? Can Armenia obtain allies on this issue? What ways do you see?
Read also
– The return of Nagorno-Karabakh to the negotiating table is a necessity. As the members of the French Senate wrote in their statement on April 7, “To decide the fate of a population in the XXI century without its involvement is at least void of sense.” Generally, it was an unforgivable mistake for the Armenian side to oust Karabakh from the negotiation table and it was driven only by Robert Kocharyan’s personal ambitions. This move rapidly weakened our positions in the negotiation process and allowed Azerbaijan to divert the essence of the matter from the right to self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh people to a territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Today like before, there is a necessity and opportunity to return Karabakh to the negotiating table. There is also more than before, a chance to obtain allies in this matter. But instead, the chief of RA General Staff is sent to Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire with Azerbaijan which once again shows the role of Russia in these developments and casts doubt on the goal of the statement made by Yerevan regarding the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to the negotiations table. As for the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia should make efforts for achieving international recognition. But I do not think that the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia at this moment will contribute to the conflict settlement process.
– In his interview with Bloomberg, Serzh Sargsyan said that the war in Karabakh can be resumed at any time and the prospect of negotiations for the solution of the conflict is not great. To what extent do you consider the resumption of full-scale war realistic and whether it is the only way out?
– As I mentioned, I consider the resumption of full-scale and along the frontline hostilities by Azerbaijan at this point less likely. In my opinion, the operation will continue in the format of periodic bombings, sabotage attacks, leading to possibly many human losses and exhausting the Armenian side and other similar actions instigating us for a response actions. As for Serzh Sargsyan’s statement regarding the impossibility of the resumption of talks in the current situation, it raises perplexity and even indignation in me. The negotiations must be continued under any conditions. Moreover, now the negotiation process must go on with much more intensity, this is the only right and beneficial way for us that can also save the lives of the soldiers, and it is quite dangerous to make such, I would say provocative and false patriotism accent containing statements in the current situation, which essentially are a statement of our intention to continue the war, and the only explanation could be not visible and not acceptable for us agreements on the outcome of the problem.
– Pertaining to the procurement of weapons from Russia by 200 million dollar loan, Defense Minister of Armenia, Seyran Ohanyan, recently said that the agreements are reached, now they are working on signing the agreements. Do you think that Russia is intentionally delaying this process? And what do you think, can Armenia obtain arms from Western countries in this situation when there is a violation of military balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
– We cannot rule out Russia’s such behavior but given the extensive experience of improper management of state financial resources by our totally corrupt government system and the huge volume of possessing the state resources through various corruption schemes for years, I think it is more likely that the delay is due to this very fact. As for the acquisition of arms from other countries, it is certainly possible and even necessary. Moreover, we should have reached such agreements on strengthening Armenia’s military security and diversification long ago. However, in addition to purchasing arms, it is necessary to organize the local production of some weapons as well as to take immediate steps for rehabilitation of the army.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
