According to the “Jamestown” Foundation columnist Armen Grigoryan, several statements voiced by Yerevan officially on the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh have always been situational and promotional
– Mr. Grigoryan, Baku officially declares that Azerbaijan is “interested in continuing the Karabakh talks”, “it is ready for substantive and productive talks on Nagorno-Karabakh.” How do you explain the statements of the Azerbaijani authorities? Before the April war, it was obvious that Baku is avoiding negotiations, what is changed now?
– They consider occupying some positions a great achievement, which creates a more favorable condition for them, allowing to be more confident during the negotiations. At the same time, it should be expected that their imagined “meaningful talks” will again be limited to the demands to stop the “20% occupation of the territory” and ensuring the return of the Azerbaijani population, as well as to some unsubstantiated promises.
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– Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, addressing the NA MPs uproar raised in Baku regarding the draft on “Recognition of the Artsakh Republic” deemed it necessary to clarify that “there is no reason to panic”, noting that “Yerevan has assured that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh will not be determined unilaterally”. This is in the case when Yerevan officially has repeatedly stated that if Baku unleashes war again, Armenia will recognize the NKR’s independence. In your opinion, what game does Russia lead in the Karabakh settlement process?
– The problem is that several statements made by Yerevan officially on recognition of NKR have always been situational and in addition, promotional, and are not accompanied by serious diplomatic task for receiving some international aid in case of the recognition. And now, in particular, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs consider the unilateral recognition unacceptable, about which the US State Department also issued a statement and the recognition would be a move equivalent to giving up the current format of the settlement. Caption: Columnist of “Jamestown” Foundation, political scientist Armen Grigoryan
As for Russia’s politics, it is predictable only by the fact that Moscow will continue its efforts to lead the settlement process exclusively by the way profitable for it, by continuing to supply weapons to Azerbaijan, the attempts to reach agreement on deployment of its “peacekeepers” and so on.
– Recently, the Azerbaijani media, citing the government sources, reported that based on the signed agreements, Russia is continuing to supply a new batch of military equipment and weapons to Azerbaijan. Now, the process of transferring 120-mm self-propelled artillery TpvO system to Azerbaijan is underway. Armenia is still waiting for the 200 million loan weapons from Russian. What do you think, can Armenia take actions to buy arms from other countries give the fact that Russia contributed to the violation of the military balance?
– Perhaps, it can but it was necessary to work in that direction a long time ago rather than allow it to the current situation, to face the fact and now look for situational solutions again.
– At this stage, it is discussed to return Nagorno-Karabakh to the negotiating table as well as to achieve the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you think it is possible to achieve success on these matters? Can Armenia obtain allies for this purposes?
– Achieving the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh is theoretically possible even based on the Madrid principles. Certainly, this will require a careful diplomatic task.
– How realistic is the resumption of the full-scale war in your opinion?
– The presence of this risk should be taken into account when working on the policy, despite comparatively small possibility. However, short-run intense battles are more likely, particularly for occupying new positions as it happened in the case of the four-day war. Their likelihood will be maintained, especially if the talks do not proceed in the direction preferable for Azerbaijan.
– Senior officials from the Defense Ministry were dismissed. While the public is waiting for more: a question of exposing them to responsibility is raised. After the four-day war in April, in the event of consolidation of the society, can we have success in reaching rehabilitation of the state? What steps and solution do you see?
– The government is not going to solve the question of responsibility for not handing over its own people and for one more important reason: in the case of exposing former officials to criminal liability, the evidence of their superiors will reveal the problem in much deeper and complex view. The society must be capable of expressing its attitude towards the corrupt political system along with both the ruling and conventionally opposition elements. Such a chance can give at least the elections in 2017. Otherwise, no changes will take place.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily
