Putin isolates Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev from the OSCE
Russian President Vladimir Putin together with President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev will conduct a tripartite meeting on the Karabakh conflict settlement on June 20 in St. Petersburg. After the four-day war in April, on May 16, by the motion of the heads of foreign ministries of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing three countries, a meeting was held in Vienna in participation of the US Secretary of State John Kerry, Secretary of State for European Affairs of France Harlem Désir and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov informed that on June 20 in St. Petersburg, Putin will first meet with his Armenian and Azeri counterparts separately, and then the trilateral discussions will commence.
Ushakov informed, “Active steps will be taken to assist the parties in the settlement of the conflict.” Recently, a few Russian officials and Russian president’s aide reminded that Moscow has played a decisive role in stopping the hostilities in April. After the four-day war unleashed by Azerbaijan, in fact, the first tripartite meeting is conducted under Putin’s patronage. But this meeting differs from its predecessor – the Vienna meeting. It turns out that the OSCE is not involved in the organization of Putin-Sargsyan-Aliyev tripartite meeting, this was said by the head of the OSCE press service Natasha Rajakovich. She refrained from commenting, nevertheless, added, “The OSCE is not involved in the organization of the meeting on Nagorno-Karabakh issue to be held in St. Petersburg and we cannot comment on it. As far as we are aware of, it takes place by the initiative of Russia.” For a long time, Russia’s motions to Putin-Sargsyan-Aliyev tripartite talks yielded no results. Moreover, Aliyev became more unruly being armed with Russian weapons. Now, after unleashing the four-day war in April, the West set forth more specific requirements before Aliyev. The Vienna agreements were indeed important, they assume the use of security mechanisms and implementation of steps for the preservation of the ceasefire regime.
The introduction of mechanisms for investigating border incidents and the expansion of the OSCE Personal Representative Andrzej Kasprzyk’s mission were also highly important for the Armenian side and adequate to the created situation. It is clear that Azerbaijan, to put it mildly, is unhappy with these proposals. While Russia ?… It looks like Putin also has his own ideas which do not coincide with the notions of the US and France. Certainly, the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh are quiet after the meeting in Vienna, but there is no guarantee that the Azerbaijani aggression will not be repeated, especially since the agreements of the meeting in Vienna, in fact, have not been implemented. Is Putin going to be decisive for the implementation of the Vienna agreements? Why no practical step was made for the Vienna agreements: i.e. introduction of investigation mechanism and expansion of the OSCE Personal Representative’s mission. Aliyev goal is to delay the implementation of the aforementioned, and why Moscow is reluctant to officially speak on these themes. Or, Moscow has other ideas, which the Russian side was not hiding before Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan. Isn’t “Lavrov’s plan” dead? Does Moscow attempt to revive them? And in general, why the OSCE is not involved in the Putin-Sargsyan-Aliyev tripartite meeting. For the requirements that are disliked by Aliyev are not “annulled”? …Let’s wait for Russia’s responses after the tripartite meeting, and not only Moscow’s but also Baku’s official statements. And while Putin will discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Sargsyan and Aliyev, Russian-Azerbaijani military cooperation was noticed with a new move. On June 15, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow, who assessed the military-technical partnership between Russia and Azerbaijan “strategically important.” Incidentally, prior to going to Moscow, Z. Hasanov had convened an extensive meeting with his Deputies, Departments, heads of the main departments and senior commanders of the armed forces. The press release on this was very interesting, which seems to provide a respective propaganda about the military preparedness of Azerbaijan, “by the command of Aliyev, questions related to comprehensive testing of combat readiness of the armed forces and training were discussed.”
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Prior to the tripartite talks under the auspices of Putin, against the background of the statements confirming the Russian-Azerbaijani strategic relations, not unexpectedly, the statements made at the Shoygu-Ohanyan meeting on the same day can be described are ordinary. “We are satisfied with the paces and satiety of our cooperation,” said Sergei Shoigu at the meeting with Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan, adding that more than five dozen treaties and agreements function in the framework of military and technical cooperation between the two countries, “We would like to further our strategic partnership.” As we can see, Armenia’s relations with strategic ally Russia do not particularly shine, while the strategic relations with Azerbaijan and the necessity to deepen them is emphasized specifically. The atmosphere is quite pressing ahead to Putin’s planned tripartite meeting.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” 17.06.2016
