With the historic visit of Pope Francis, turnover developments are taking place in Armenia
On Saturday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev delivered a speech to the military audience and presented his own version of the details of the tripartite meeting in St. Petersburg. Leaving the traditional campaign clichés behind and taking out the essence, it becomes clear that this ill-fated meeting is a serious attempt to disrupt the agreements reached in Vienna.
According to Aliyev, the number of “employees” in the office of Andrzej Kasprzyk, Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, can be increased from 6 by not more than 2-2.5 times, becoming let’s say – 12, 13 or 14, “and that’s all,” says he, adding that the mandate “remains in its place,” there is no change, and “there is no need for the mechanisms of the investigation of incidents proposed by Armenians.”
Right after the meeting in Vienna, Novruz Mammadov expressed his “authoritative” opinion that the agreements on permanent monitoring and investigation mechanisms in Vienna “is the opinion of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs”, and Azerbaijan has not taken on such a commitment. However, as we remember, a few days ago, after the phone conversation of the US Vice President Joe Biden with the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the same Novruz Mammadov’s “authoritative” opinion became directly opposite: Azerbaijan is committed to the Vienna agreement. And here, the Kremlin shows up with its St. Petersburg initiative to save Baku to smear and “wash out” the Vienna agreements.
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Once when Yerevan voluntarily put its head under Russian pressing had nothing to do but to agree to this obviously harmful initiative, whereas in Vienna they had agreed that the meeting in June should take place under the same auspices of Minsk Group tri-chairmanship. In fact, all three parties of the St. Petersburg “trio” violated the Vienna agreement. But if Moscow and Baku are doing it for their own interests, it is simply contraindicated to Armenia’s interests. Irrespective of the fact that Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ms. Zakharova’s statement to the world that there is no attempt by Russia to bring the process to its own field, whereas the OSCE Minsk co-chair adamant Mr. Warlick says that “Russia is interested in solving the problem” and the US, Russia and France are looking at this matter from the same point of view, focusing more on the necessity and importance of maintaining the ceasefire.
However, an attempt was made in St. Petersburg to give flesh and blood to the Russian-Azerbaijani aspirations: refusing the OSCE mechanisms and continuing keeping the situation in the mode of threat hanging over Armenia’s head. And Armenia was left with only the possibility to rely on Russia’s “word of honor.”
And how much Russian kopeck does this already devaluated “word of honor” cost? It is even a shame to discuss.
Last week, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee held important hearings. The main topics were the US-Russia and NATO-Russia relations ahead of the NATO Summit in Warsaw. The most important conclusions are: first, Russia transforms the post-Soviet countries in Europe into a “gray zone» (The Gray Zone) and seeks to establish its hegemony in the former Soviet Union territory; secondly, it is necessary to restrain Russia and to restore NATO’s “muscle memory.”
There is no doubt that the NATO’s Warsaw summit is going to be a turning point for the West-Russia relations and the post-Soviet countries in this context. Its preconditions are numerous. The outcome of the referendum in the UK have led to a shocking effect in Europe and the United States, the EU leading country German Chancellor Merkel announced of the necessity to substantially expand the military expenditure, NATO announced about the permanent presence in the Black Sea, to the point, it is not about Turkey. And the march of the US-UK heavy armored fighting vehicles by Varna-Batumi route in May and the military exercises held with the Armed forces of Georgian in this context obtain a significance extending beyond the borders of the region.
“And where is Armenia here?” you will ask. This question has two recipients: Armenia’s society and the government authorities of Armenia. The society should be aware that the Russian “word of honor” is not only an extremely shaky ground for Armenia but also very dangerous and disparaging after all this. The government is just obliged to find ways out, and Armenia needs to be represented to the NATO summit at the highest level. Armenia’s transformation to a hostile territory for NATO can represent a deadly danger for Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia to meet the imperialistic whims of Ms. Zakharova’s leaders. It is a direct way to a new war. “And the time for leaving the question “And where is Armenia here?” unanswered is rapidly coming to an end, and the second Byzantium is much more dangerous than the first one for the Armenian statehood.
Ruben MEHRABYAN
In the photo: Georgian MoD official web site (the US “Abrams” tanks and “Bradley” ITUs in Batumi port, May 2016)
