Is it possible for the RPA party fails in the elections? There is no unequivocal answer to this question. It depends on whom we call “RPA.” If we mean Ashotyan, Sharmazanov or Artak Zakaryan, then, yes, it is theoretically possible that these names would no longer exist in the Parliament. But if we are talking about whether it is possible that the ruling nomenclature might change, then no, nothing like that will happen. Even if any other part gathers the majority, anyway, it will be “RPA” (“PANM,” “Communist Party”) in a broad sense.
There is no mechanism of “elite alterability” in Armenia. There are countries where it happens in a non-democratic way. For example, in China, this rotation is made “from above” and, as a rule, is accompanied by shooting dead. In the United States, it is implemented by electoral mechanisms, truly, in my opinion, overly imperfect and outdated. Those who are “responsible” for this rotation in the United States, they realize that neither Hillary Clinton would be a very successful president nor moreover Donald Trump. But what we can do nothing here, these are traditions that so far no one wants to break.
In Georgia, the elite change happened due to the “Rose Revolution”, which is so far a source of inspiration to our Armenian revolutionaries. “Whether our neighbors managed to grow a new and more contemporary elite, perhaps not fully. When the West cut off the funds after Saakashvili, the nomenclature became more “traditional.” While, for example, in the case of our other neighbors, it is the same how the ruling party will be called: a “Yeni Azerbaijan” or “Koyna Azerbaijan”, it is all the same, the same structure is going to be with strong communist traditions. The same, for example, for “Yedinaya Russia” or “Nash Dom – Rossiya,” PANM or RPA.
The elite in Armenia can be changed, of course, only by the electoral mechanisms, which the government so far manages to resist. There is no sign that it can happen in 2017.
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The change of power, yes, is not excluded as it was in 1998. It like then did not change anything so will not change now. An elite change will happen when the political parties will act not for “breaking each other’s head” but drive from the ideological and principled positions. Today, the political parties do not want to even hear about it. “What ideology at this lethal time, – says the government, – the country is in the pit, soon we will conduct reforms and everything will be fine.” “What ideology at this lethal time, – says the opposition for 25 years, – soon we will bring the people out to the street, will catch, judge, hang, shoot and burn all the looters and everything will be fine.” This is what we are going to hear in the next coming months.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
