“Aravot” interviews Eugene Magda, a Ukrainian political analyst and Executive Director of the Center for Public Relations in Kiev
– Mr. Magda, how do you see the further development of Ukraine-Russia relations in the short- and med-term run, and how all this will affect us, the so-called “post-Soviet” countries?
– Russia will not let Ukraine go and it is obvious. The existence of democratic and independence Ukraine is a serious challenge to the Kremlin. The denial of the direct involvement by the Kremlin in the conflict in Donbas is accompanied by Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric about “brotherly Ukrainian people”. I think the civilized world is already asking a question how Russia will treat its other “non-friendly” people. The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has already affected the world procedures, not only the viability of the Budapest summit is questioned which was ensuring the security of our country after the renouncing of the nuclear weapon, but also the entire mechanism of restraint and balances in the international relations. I think that in the case of Ukraine, the Kremlin had intended to organize a demonstrative flogging, resulting a demoralizing effect on the Central and Eastern European countries. But Ukraine continues to resist despite the calculations of the Russian leadership, according to which our country will not resist the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of conflict in Donbas.
– The Black Sea, the Black Sea basin is a link between Ukraine and the South Caucasus. The countries of the Black Sea region such as Romania and Bulgaria, as well as Turkey, are the members of NATO, an alliance, to which Ukraine and Georgia had announced a priority to be integrated. NATO has announced its intention of increasing its presence in the Black Sea aiming to restrain Russia, which imposed Ukrainian Crimea’s annexation, which in its turn is expanding its military influence. Under the Russia-NATO high-level confrontation and the hybrid war against your country, about which you have written a book, what outcome do you see to come out of this situation in this important region, and what are the opportunities and intentions of Ukraine as a major and important country in the Black Sea?
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– Russia turns its annexed Crimea into its “non-downing aircraft”, emphasizing its readiness to deploy a nuclear weapon on the territory of the peninsula. Russian servicemen are willing to prove to the world that the gulfs factor is of no significance in the modern world. Ukraine should not only solve the problem of territorial integrity but also strengthen its position in the Black Sea region. Paradoxically, Russia starting its aggression did not leave a choice for Ukraine. Our country should be changed and win. I do not absolute the perspective of Ukraine and NATO annexation on this issue, assuming that our country must lay a bet on its own potential. The Ukrainian army has been strengthened and tempered in the Donbass battles, and today, it is a serious military force. But as we know, it is impossible to solve the issue of strengthening the country’s reputation exclusively by military means, therefore, Ukraine should seek political ways to strengthen its influence in the region.
– Turkey is Ukraine’s neighbor and a NATO member. But the domestic political processes in this country, where according to the characterization of the European Parliament President Martin Schulz, a “single person” political system is formed, while his main course of rhetoric leadership is anti-Western, sometimes with offensive anti-liberal attacks, the inner instability and subjugating the Europeans to blackmail in the context of the refugees issue from the Middle East and other crisis countries outside Europe, more increasingly make the Western politicians and experts to consider that Turkey is not a solution to the problem but the problem itself and increasingly growing problem. In the context of Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, as well as against the background of the unprecedented tension with Turkey, is there a tendency for the rapprochement of relations between Turkey and Ukraine? In your opinion, how “deep” can Ukraine and Turkey go in their relationship, and are there risks here for Kiev?
– The freezing of the Russian-Turkish relations in late 2015 created a unique opportunity for Ukraine to find a new powerful ally in the Black Sea region. The grounds for the partnership are few, both the desire to create a free trade zone, cooperation in the security system (Ukraine and Turkey have much to offer to each other) and the factor of Crimean Tatars who are living in Crimea and Turkey. The situation in which Ukraine appeared since the spring of 2014 – the allies are not chosen, although formally, Kiev has two dozen strategic partners, including Russia. But the rapprochement with Ankara is unlikely to happen earlier as Turkey’s aspiration to dominate in the Black Sea region compels seeing Ukraine as a competitor. In addition, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s policy – a greater external political macho than Vladimir Putin is, does not suggest concessions to Ukraine. Hence, a pragmatic alliance is expected to us according to the calculation.
– Mr. Magda, despite the fact that the Armenian-Ukrainian relations commence from the times of Kievan Rus, however, the independent Ukraine and Armenia during their quarter-century of independence have “managed” to leave some “ruins” in the interstate relations, first, in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and then the Ukrainian crisis associated with the aspiration to be integrated into EU and NATO, the intrusion of Russian troops to the eastern regions of your country and on Crimea issue. Actually, official Yerevan and Kiev are voting against each other at the international platforms, make statements, which further grow the “ruins” in the inter-state relations, which can only make various “third forces” happy. How to stop this flywheel? What are the priority moves in this direction, and how do you see the prospect of interstate relations between Armenia and Ukraine?
– Unfortunately, Ukraine and Armenia do not often “see” each other on a number of objective and subjective reasons. I would not like to talk today about the mistakes in the relations between Yerevan and Kiev, most importantly to see common prospects. In my opinion, the secret is the pragmatic relations based on economic interests and mutual respect. Although Armenia is a CIS and CSTO member, I doubt that Yerevan would like to “dance under the tunes of duduk” of the Kremlin in all matters.” The first move is important in the intensification of bilateral relations, which, apparently, should be made by Ukraine as a more powerful state.
– Pope Francis named the Armenian Genocide, Holodomor and Holocaust as the largest genocides, the mist massive crimes against humanity that were committed in the 20th century. On June 2, the German Bundestag make a historic decision, it not only accepted the fact of the Genocide in the Ottoman Empire but also the responsibility Kaiser Germany for what happened. Unfortunately, the society in Armenia and Ukraine know few things about the Holodomor in Ukraine and the Armenian genocide, often the attitude towards these issues is driven by the current political situation. How do you assess it, and what possibilities of joint actions do you see at the non-governmental level to form a fair approach on these issues?
– Speaking of the crimes against humanity is not always easy for the perpetrators do not often bear the punishment. The genocides committed against our peoples unite Armenia and Ukraine, and Ukrainians can learn the steadfastness of Armenians, with which they are striving to restore justice. I think that our countries need to unite their efforts to form an active position for the humanitarian consequences of the genocides and the prevention thereof in the 21st century. Incidentally, in the context of the Russian position on Holodomor, which Russia is trying either to be silent or slander, I would not also rule out the similar approach of the Kremlin to the Armenian Genocide.
– In 2016, Ukraine will mark the 400th anniversary of the Armenian printing. The big Armenian community in Ukraine, the Armenian organizations, in particular, the Armenian community of Ukraine, are planning to mark this event. After France, the Armenian community of Ukraine is the second by large. Armenians of Ukraine were volunteers in the Ukrainian army and in the ranks of the National Guard, they were taking part in the battles for the freedom of Ukraine, there were dozens killed among them, hundreds were awarded state awards, the Armenian community had a great contribution to the logistical support of the Ukrainian army. How do you assess the role of Armenian citizens of Ukraine in the country’s social, political and cultural life?
– I would like to remind you that Sergey Nigoyan was one of the first victims in Euromaidan and Ukraine remembers it very well. I think that the Armenian citizens of Ukraine have made a significant contribution to the formation of the Ukrainian political life and have its significant role in the formation of the civic and cultural life of our country. This fact allows us to optimistically view the prospects for the development of relations between Armenia and Ukraine. The state policy is shaped by the people and the relationships between them, isn’t it?
EMMA GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” 05.07.2016
