Political scientist Tigran Abrahamyan about the data published by Azerbaijan Defense Ministry about the losses of Armenia, the setting up a Turkish base in Azerbaijan and the return of liberated territories
– Despite the situation in the borderline is relatively peaceful in the last 1-2 months, recently, the Defense Army commander Lyova Mnatsakanyan announced that the possibility of renewed hostilities remains high. What are such fears and how would you assess the situation in the frontline?
– The situation is quiet only outwardly. True, the number of penetration attempts of diversion groups in the beginning of the year or in the same period last year has sharply fallen, however, their actions in the mid-positioning area are not significantly reduced. Drones also have become quite active. In other words, Azerbaijan is in active intelligence operations. On the other hand, it is noticeable that the engineer and minesweeper forces and especially sniper groups are becoming active in the frontline by causing problems for combat duty staff, as well as during the implementation of engineering works. As for the “relatively peaceful” term, then the subversive penetration attempts are not the only elements to measure the activeness of the enemy in the frontline, simply for known reasons the consequences of similar activities and the caused noise become more sonorous. Hence, I would abstain from qualifying the activities of the Azerbaijani army in the frontline passive.
– In recent months, the Azerbaijani press provides more information about re-confirmed intentions and agreement signed with this-or-that country military ministry regarding the military cooperation. How will you interpret this?
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– Given the fact that during the April hostilities Azerbaijan suffered big losses, especially the so-called elite units, an active process of recruitment have begun in these troops. If earlier, the special military units were passing special training in the military base designed for the Turkish special forces, the rumors are circulated that the Turkish side is establishing a special base in Azerbaijan. Hence, what we have is more of a temporary pause.
– Azerbaijani Defense Ministry had issued a statement stating that the Armenian side has concealed the true losses during the April war .
– The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry would be better to answer or present in the same “transparency” the circumstances of the deaths of conscripts in some directions and its special squads held against the “meat-grinder”. A question arises why Azerbaijan publishes such data now. To prove the “declaring victory” it is necessary to “record” big numbers of losses of the Armenian troops, just a plain drawing of numbers.
– The theme of the return of territories is the most discussed in the media and social networks. Constantly, various documents are cited: Lavrov’s plan and so on. Is there such an issue on the agenda of negotiations at this moment?
– I do not know what documents they are citing, at least I see neither official statements proving the existence of those documents nor even such a process. Moreover, there are no negotiations as such, there are contacts and discussions, mainly through the mediators but there is no serious process. Accordingly, it is useless to speculate on this topic inappropriately. After the April war, by the initiative of mediators, two meetings of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan were held: in Vienna and in St. Petersburg. Joint statements were issued by presenting the moves, which will enable to resume the negotiations. However, as expected, Azerbaijan again backtracked and refused to carry out these moves from the earlier agreement and only sends weak signals about the expansion of the office of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office Personal Representative. Hence, I repeat, at the moment the key issue of the agenda is the implementation of the moves aimed at the resumption of negotiations, and the absence thereof created additional risks of the unpredictability of the situation, apart from uncertainty.
Interviewed by Nelly GRIGORYAN,
“Aravot” daily
