The geopolitical storm around Armenia is not only stopped but escalated. Its rebound is felt also in the corridors of the government of the country and the political backstage, influencing on the political practice. Eventually, in the history of independent Armenia, the most oligarchic, therefore, the dearest for the authorities the government’s resignation on September was imposed primarily by this circumstance. In addition to absolutely regular inner social changes, this very factor led to the impossibility of the line of actions “like before”.
What does it mean “like before”? When you appoint several “watchers” in several spheres, on which you have no clue, you hand it over to Russians by sending the active segment of the population to business trip to “age-old friendly” Russia, form a reproduction institutional mechanism in the elections, put security officials to guard this mechanism, “capture” the television tower and imprison several disobedient with “limited consciousness”. And direct the foreign policy towards servicing this “treasure”. You are ousted from the West just for all this, threatened by “deepening of relations” with Russia, the more you are closer to the West, either the Russians do not agree to some discounts so that you can make your wasted or pocketed budget meet both ends, while you are trying to curb the obscenity of the sponsors of Russians, Moscow threatened, and you threaten in your turn that you will further become closer with the West, and so on until the new election cycle.
And now, all this does not work anymore. The election “warming up drill” in Vanadzor and Gyumri showed in the threshold of 2017 elections that the “crude” option does not work anymore. No matter, this time, the manipulation with the help of forces assuming the mission of a “cushion” between the authorities and the public worked, post-election developments seem not to be seen, and the ruling party celebrates a victory without realizing its pyrrhic essence, nevertheless, by and large, the occurrence shows that it is no longer successful to introduce the unchanged as changed in order not to change anything.
But not changing is not possible as the mathematics underlies on the basis of accounting, which is an exact science even if the NSS presents minus as a plus. It is not the NSS to close this gap. Thus, the imitation change does not solve a question. The real change changes. While this needs “sharing”, no matter how unpleasant it is.
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Several actions of the new government from “what is closer to the people’s heart” can shape an expectation with the public, but the expectation is one thing and its materialization is another thing. Certainly, as it is accepted in the international practice, it would be correct to give final assessment when the hundredth day of the government will be over. However, Armenia is not in the “aquarium”. No matter how Russia seeks to isolate Armenia, anyway, the external factors cannot but affect.
Let’s take the last one. So what if Edward Nalbandian is reappointed and continues to tell the world about Armenia’s obligations before EaEU, and Armenia is a member of the Francophonie organization (whereas the number of those in Armenia who know French does not make a double-digit percentage …), and the Armenian-French non-binding relations rich with bounteous compliments so far have not “delved a wedge”, according to Moscow, in the Armenian-Russian “strategic alliance”, and this even creates an illusion of “complementary” but even this does not work.
To prevent the humanitarian disaster in Aleppo, France submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council, on which Russia vetoed. On Monday, France announced that it intends to sue Russia at the International Court of the Hague and openly speaks about the war crimes committed by the Putin regime and the necessity for punishment for it.
Interestingly, what steps the RA Government (whose most members are working in the “Gazprom”) intends to take to correct the economic situation when it is clear that it is pointless to wait for investments from Russia, there is nothing left to “look for and bring”, the only source left is the West. Its evidence is the venue of the “Armenia: Investment Forum” not anywhere else but in New York which will be attended by Serzh Sargsyan.
But how to convince the American strategic investors that Russia that has become a threat will not threaten future investments in Armenia even if it is possible to convince that fighting against corruption, monopolies, the interpenetration of business and politics captures new heights. How to convince Russia that “dear age-old friend and strategic ally, we do not have other options, we should take care of ourselves without you, let us not disturb us and do not take offense against us.” Apparently, one more thing should be added to the arguments: “We want to “share” not to lose all, we are already “sharing”, let you also “share”…
Certainly, we are not naïve to think that Russia will smile at us just for nothing and will say, “Ok, guys, let it be as you want.” Moscow, as we know, does not only believe in tears but have never liked to “share.” But for Moscow not to perceive this as a banal joke, it is necessary not only to say but also to act. There is no other way. The power needs “sharing”. That is both the pledge and standard of the real change. The rest is Moscow’s problem.
Ruben MEHRABYAN
