I do not know what political objectives the former defense minister of Artsakh, Samvel Babayan, pursues and whose interests he represents (although I can guess whose) but the idea in his recent interview, in my opinion, mirrors the reality by 100%: Azerbaijan is planning a large-scale and long-run war. This forecast speaks of the fact that after the April war, no practical step has been made in the implementing the agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg.
It is clear that Azerbaijan does not need it. But it is also not so much necessary perhaps for the Minsk Group co-chair countries, otherwise, the diplomacy of these countries would have initiated certain steps in that direction. While this passivity encourages Azerbaijan to get ready for a new attack. Certainly, Russia must give the final “consent” like it did in April of this year, however, it is a matter of time, sooner or later, the opportune reason will appear.
If someone in Armenia thinks that the Karabakh issue will be forgotten, will wear out and go away or will obtain a peaceful solution in the near historical future, these people are sadly mistaken. And the problem is not that Ilham Aliyev is a crack-brained or has Napoleonic ambitions. Simply, the constant threat of war and the war itself are the only guarantors for him to maintain his power. Azerbaijan will collapse without dictatorship, primarily under the pressure of social and national problems inside the country, as well as under the influence of the Islamic factor from outside. And the only “substantiation” of dictatorship is the war, which is accompanied by militant rhetoric and racist statements. Certainly, along with all this, Azerbaijan will not dare to resume hostilities if the main players outside really want peace in South Caucasus. Hence, the relative calamity in recent months should not make anyone fall into misunderstanding, and so to speak, make them become weak; war is ahead and our state must be ready for it. As to what is necessary for it, we have spoken about it many times.
… Still, in October 1920, Soviet Foreign Minister Georgy Chicherin had written a report to Lenin, with the following meaning: Karabakh although historically being an Armenian land cannot be given to Armenia. But, on the other hand, it cannot be given also to Azerbaijan. The substantiation sounds very modern: in both cases, there was the risk of losing both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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Aram ABRAHAMYAN
