Baku and Ankara are not hiding the “bargaining” with Moscow on Karabakh
Azerbaijan and Turkey have boosted the discussions about Karabakh. The expectations of Ankara and Baku became more pronounced especially after the Russian president traveled to Istanbul on October 10 to attend the World Energy Forum. In Istanbul, most likely, Erdoğan and Aliyev discussed also the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Putin in the context of Russia-Turkey, Russia-Azerbaijan relations.
On October 12, after the visit of Putin to Istanbul, at the PACE autumn session, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu spoke about the NK issue, noting, ” Russia makes very sensible proposals, which is the withdrawal of Armenians from 5 occupied regions of Azerbaijan. This option is now under consideration. In the case of initiating these steps, I hope the problem will be solved, Azerbaijan is also for the settlement. Turkey, in its turn, is willing to normalize relations with Armenia.”
On October 14, in the framework of CSTO Collective Security Council session held in Yerevan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov directly announced that Turkey can play a positive role in the resolution of NK conflict, “If Armenia and Turkey return to the implementation of their agreements without the reference to the Karabakh conflict, we will be only happy. But we feel like the progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement has a crucial significance for the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations.”
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Then it Aliyev’s turn came. His interview with Director General of Россия сегодня (Russia Today), Dmitry Kiselev, was published on October 18, in which he spoke about the possibility of granting autonomous status to Nagorno-Karabakh, “A reasonable compromise is possible: the security of Nagorno-Karabakh people, their livelihoods, self-government, the implementation of various investment projects on the part of Azerbaijan.” Then, the President of Azerbaijan continued, “We will never agree to Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence.” “We can compromise on issues of local self-government, and in the future, if we agree, it may be an autonomous republic.”
During the twenty-year history of the Karabakh talks, at times, official Baku presents its visioned “concession”, which is “high degree of autonomy in the composition of Azerbaijan.” In other words, Aliyev sets aside the proposals and principles placed on the table and presents his condition, which generally goes against the philosophy of principles proposed by the mediators to reach a peaceful settlement thru concessions. Official Yerevan reacted Aliyev’s statement of “giving autonomy to Nagorno-Karabakh”.
“The most important issue for us over Nagorno-Karabakh is its status. Our answer to Aliyev Artsakh is the following: Artsakh will not be part of Azerbaijan by any status. The problem is with Azerbaijanis. If by saying a concession, they mean an autonomous republic, then they have fallen into self-deception and confusion. The compromise is in the recognition of NKR internationally. As to what in return, it will be up to the authorities and the people of Karabakh,” – said NA Vice-Speaker, Eduard Sharmazanov, in an interview with the journalists at the Parliament.
He added that Aliyev has just confused the words “independent” and “autonomous”, adding that the recognition of Artsakh internationally is a matter of time, “If Aliyev is not aware of the principles of negotiation, I will inform that one of them is the exercise of the right to self-determination. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries have repeatedly mentioned it in their statements.” It is remarkable that Aliyev in his interview with Kiselyov has not excluded Azerbaijan’s accession to the EurAsEC, the Eurasian Economic Union. Although he has mentioned that Azerbaijan feels itself more secure in the current status, both in an economic and political sense, nevertheless, he has evolved the theme noting that it has been talked long ago among the expertizing community and the political elites of various countries.
“I’ll tell this way, in principle, today we feel pretty confident in the status in which we are … So, we still need to watch what trends will emerge. Certainly, if the Union becomes attractive, it will attract many countries. Hence, nothing can be excluded, this is how I will characterize the current phase.” Aliyev had added that they are closely following the processes going on in the Eurasian territory, “Today, the format of our economic, why not, also political cooperation with the EurAsEC member countries is quite strong. To proceed by the path of integration, certainly, motivation is needed. It can be economic, social, political, any other motivation. And now, we are working in this direction,” – he said.
As to what political “motivation” is necessary to Aliyev to think more seriously about joining this Union is easy to guess. The “bargaining” with Moscow on Karabakh issue may become more materialistic if Baku sees more “consistent” work from Moscow about using pressure over Armenia. While now, official Baku has passed to its traditional policy of blackmail mediators, once again proving that it is against the peace talks and concessions, in general. Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan, Novruz Mammadov, has referred to the April war in the article published in “Azerbaijan” official newspaper, adding, “the frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh may break out with renewed vigor at any time.”
Mammadov expressed indignation over the fact that although “the international mediators are acting in favor of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan but for some reason, they prefer not to have a position” on this issue. “We expect specific moves from the co-chairing countries, as well as the international community for fair resolution of the conflict,” – noted Mammadov, adding that the restoration of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan” is the “biggest challenge” facing Azerbaijan. He again complained that “no progress until now has been reported in the negotiations” held with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group, and added , “Armenia is not interested in resolving the conflict and is trying to maintain the no-war no-peace situation.”
Aliyev’s another speech at the official reception dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the independence of Azerbaijan was spiced with war threats and “messages” to impose the mediators to blackmail, ” The main reason of wars is that neighboring countries do not get along with each other. I reiterate, if National Leader Heydar Aliyev had been in power in the early 1990s, the Armenia-Azerbaijan war would have never begun. We would have never let this happen. But today, we should resolve this problem. We have both diplomatic and other ways. We have made great steps towards army building. We know our strength. We are confident of our strength. We are simply trying to ensure the peaceful resolution of this issue.”
It is high remarkable that Aliyev is proud of being confident that if his father were in power in the early 1990s, the “Armenian-Azerbaijani war” would not have started, however, several months ago, he committed an aggression, and today, he continues to speak also about the desired solution by “other ways”. Now, the hope for Baku to achieve the “desired solution” is Moscow, and to be more specific, “Lavrov’s plan”, which was indirectly hinted by the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu at the PACE autumn plenary session and a few days ago, by Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry representative, Hikmet Hajiyev, who complained about Russian presidential assistant Yuri Ushakov’s statement that Moscow is not optimistic on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the near future but continues to work with Yerevan and Baku.
“The statement causes us astonishment and regret. Mr. Ushakov’s statement contradicts the OSCE Minsk Group statements at the presidential level. It is also inconsistent to the detailed negotiations, which are conducted by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his visits to the region,” – said Hajiyev.
EMMA GABRIELYAN,
“Aravot”
