Small nuances of the big game
The visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to the region is expected in the near future. The OSCE Minsk Group Russian co-chair Igor Popov gave an interview to the Azerbaijani APA news agency, informing that they are going to study the process of implementation of the agreements reached in the meetings held in Vienna and St. Petersburg, which are aimed at stabilization of the situation in the conflict zone, as well as to determine military situation in the zone of conflict. The fact that the co-chairs are determined in the fulfillment of the agreements reached at the meetings in Vienna and St. Petersburg, surely, it is positive.
If it comes to the introduction of mechanisms to investigate the border incidents, it definitely stems from Armenia’s interests. While, we cannot say the same in the case of Azerbaijan, which consistently shows that they are against the use of these mechanisms. Hence, the tough stance of the co-chairs on this issue will only be helpful for the process. In this sense, one can understand the reasons for the abundant nervous estimates from Baku. The non- optimistic statements voiced from the United States, on the one hand, and from Russia, on the other hand, regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement are an additional tool in terms of expectations for the mediators to demand Aliyev in the current phase at least to fulfil the agreements reached, which is not a part of Aliyev’s “plans”.
That is the reason why he suddenly decided to grant “autonomy” to Karabakh ahead of the visit of the co-chairs, by presenting it as a “concession” of Baku. It is also noteworthy that the Russian co-chair has emphasized that the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a single package, and it is destructive to remove separate components from it. “We have repeatedly expressed our opinion on the issue of the return of the territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh. This problem should be addressed in an integrated way, together with the issues related to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the return of all refugees, the preservation of a corridor linking Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, and the holding of a peacekeeping operation. The settlement process is a single package, and any attempt to separate elements preferred by one or the other side as a priority is destructive,” – said Popov.
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This is also a message raised in response to the continuous settlement of official Baku beyond the content and philosophy of the settlement. If we summarize, we can state that the Co-Chairs will try to understand during their visit to the region how Aliyev has completed his “homework”. Serzh Sargsyan would hardly agree to the continuation of the talks without the fulfillment of the commitments, hence the mediators at this stage perhaps are quite rigorous. We should not forget another very remarkable statement by Aliyev recently, “A pressure is exerted on us behind the closed doors aiming to lead to the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence.”
In other words, the scope of agreements reached during the meetings in Vienna and St. Petersburg, in addition to technical issues, has also expectations to the specific question on materialistic matters, which Aliyev avoids. The upcoming visit of the co-chairs, thus, perhaps can be considered one of the most important in terms of ensuring the future process of negotiations. First of all, they will determine the progress on implementation of the commitments aimed at stabilization of the situation in the conflict zone, the military situation as well as trying to get specific answers from Aliyev.
However, there is one more remarkable paragraph on Popov’s interview. Referring to the meeting of the co-chairs held in early October in Moscow, Popov first noted that the results of the summits in Vienna and St. Petersburg were detailed at the meeting held at the Russian Foreign Ministry, and then added that Sergey Lavrov had informed his partners about Russia’s voluntary mediation efforts and shared the estimates of his conversations in Yerevan and Baku on Karabakh conflict. “The American and French Co-Chairs have reiterated the approaches of their countries regarding the settlement, which reflect the posture of the collective “trio,” – said Popov.
If the Azerbaijani media has not distorted the words of Russian Co-chair, then it can be stated that the Russian co-chair’s level has made things clear that there are “Russia’s voluntary mediation efforts”, in respect of which discussions were held in Moscow, and the US and French Co-Chairs also have got acquainted with the stances of Armenia and Azerbaijan on them.
If Moscow’s “self-efforts” fit in the circles of recommendations and agreements of the meetings in Vienna and St. Petersburg, it definitely is positive but if “Russia’s self-efforts” are what Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu are talking about recently thru the microphone of PACE that “Russia act with sensible proposals, namely, the removal of Armenians from the five occupied regions of Azerbaijan”, then in this case, there is a cause for serious reflection and conclusions.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” 20.10.2016
