Political scientist Tigran Abrahamyan about the recent statements on NKR issue
– Recently, activations are observed from Azerbaijan as on the contact line so as in the diplomatic level. For example, the deputy head of the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration, responsible for the Department on foreign relations, Novruz Mammadov, announced that they are expecting specific actions from the mediators, while the collision in April in the line of contact showed that the unresolved conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh can lead to serious consequences. How would you estimate this statement?
– Only with one word – a blackmail. Essentially, this statement was voiced in response to the statements by the US Secretary of State and Russian President’s Assistant, which affixed that there is no need to expect solutions on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement in the short-run term. Moreover, it was emphasized that the parties are not ready for the settlement of the conflict. Azerbaijan practices blackmail because it has become the captive of its earlier statements. Azerbaijan never misses the opportunity to declare that if there will be no substantial solutions in the near future, they will have to proceed with the military solution to the settlement of the conflict. True, after the April war, the confident tone of these statements fell, however, in any case, the main propaganda politics is built just on it. Azerbaijan is trying to find ways to come out of the created situation possibly unharmed, which is not only complex but also can motivate Azerbaijan to extreme moves.
– What extreme move are you talking about? Is the present situation in the line of contact one of its signals?
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– Azerbaijan has a problem of demonstrating the fact that this conflict is not frozen. From this perspective, there is a fear that the statements of the co-chair countries in Baku about the problem not having a quick solution will further strengthen the status quo. Hence, Azerbaijan is trying to aggravate the situation in the line of contact not only to focus the attention of the international community on this issue but also to prove that the strengthening of the status quo leads to tension. So, it is assumed that in the near future, Azerbaijan will try to go to new collisions in the line of contact, which can be expressed by intensification of subversive groups and snipers, as well as by the sharp increase of firing from various caliber weapons. What we have in the line of contact at this moment so fat does not represent a threat, however, it is not excluded that it will be aggravated in the near future. In any case, let us state at compared to the summer months, we have started the autumn quite disturbing.
– How would you interpret Ilham Aliyev’s statement that Azerbaijan will never accept the fact with the independence of Karabakh, however, as a concession, Azerbaijan can offer an autonomy?
– With one word – a predilection. In this case, the target is the Azerbaijani society. If Azerbaijan was not ready to accept the fact with the independence of Karabakh, why are they negotiating on a document for long years, which assumes the independence of Artsakh? On the other hand, this statement can be viewed as a toughening of the Azerbaijani posture in the process, which under certain conditions can be expressed as a start to “put a cross” on the process, which is also fraught with dangerous consequences.
– Armenia’s strategic ally Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently announced that Turkey may have a positive influence on the process of the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Can this have a consequence for Armenia?
– I view this statement in the context of thawing of the Turkey-Russia relations. Both sides realize that this statement cannot have value in real life, however, maybe propaganda-psychologically, it is useful for those countries. Frankly speaking, I do not find any other logical explanation, and I do not even want to find any because this idea cannot even be a subject of discussion for Armenia, moreover, to be implemented.
Nelly GRIGORYAN
