According to Gevorg Melikyan, expert of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, Armenia may gradually become part of a complex game, which can create problems for Armenia including the deterioration of relations with the United States, if US-Russia tensions get worse under Trump
– Since the independence of Armenia, Armenia-US relations have been progressively developing. Do you foresee changes in Washington’s policies on Armenia under Trump presidency?
– The United States has never considered Armenia as a globally significant and heavyweight player and will continue to do so unless Armenia entirely changes its political and economic models. The Armenian community in the US was always of a certain significance, however Trump-Clinton duo did not have traditional encounters with the members of the Armenian-American diaspora as used to be during all previous campaigns. Yet, some factors still play a role and keep Armenia in the US’ political spotlight. Some of those factors are negative, some are positive. Among the negative ones are Armenia’s military-political and economic ties with Russia, the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia and Russia’s strong impact on Armenia’s all strategically important sectors.
The US has concerns that Armenia may get entrapped into any of Russia-sponsored military and/or political projects against the US or any of its allies, if Russia decides to make a proxy war trough any other country (i.e. Armenia) or to push Armenia to make anti-western steps such as preventing Armenia from pre-signing a new agreement with the EU or limiting Armenia-NATO relations, or requiring that Armenia cuts the personnel of foreign diplomatic relations or limits financial supports by western donors. The leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization member states adopted the organization’s collective security strategy for the period till 2025 as a result of the summit held in Yerevan, Armenia on October 14, 2016. The document has an anti-western content and nature, and lists possible steps against political and other intentions of NATO member states and the US, in particular, although without naming them those countries. This provides that Armenia, as a member state of CSTO, Eurasian Economic Union and CIS, is directly adhering to Russia-led anti-western “coalition” and may gradually become part of a complex game, which can create problems for Armenia including the deterioration of relations with the United States, if US-Russia tensions get worse under Trump.
Read also
Another negative factor is the procrastination of the peaceful solution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which in turn further strengthens the destructive role of Russia in the region. Positive factors include good relations with Iran and Georgia, as well as the presence of a vibrant Armenian community in Syria, many of whom are refugees now in Armenia. The United States has a certain irrational but positive attitude towards Armenia with a great potential for cooperation between the US and Armenia in a number of fields, but the potential remains unexplored because of Armenia’s cowardly foreign policy. Trump will revive US-Armenia relations if Yerevan is not constrained by external and internal factors. The dynamics in those relations will also mainly depend on who will be part of Trump’s administration. If Newt Gingrich, whose position on the Armenian Genocide issue is rather negative, is appointed as Secretary of State, the picture can be different. The same for the Vice-President Michael Pence who, in contrast, supported the recognition of the Armenian Genocide when he was a congressman. Thus, things will depend on a number of factors, and it’s too early to make predictions given also the fact that Trump has still to formulate his positions on a number of issues. I think, if the US doesn’t increase its ties with Armenia, it will at least try to keep the same levels.
– Mr. Melikyan, given that Donald Trump is elected president of the US, what predictions do you have for Washington’s possible policy on our region?
– As mentioned, Trump will need some time do understand what is going on and how he will govern such a complex, politically and socially multilayered and economically and militarily the strongest country in the world like the US which has also domestic concerns. Since the very beginning Trump was a controversial candidate not only for the international community, but also for Americans. Starting from the first day, when Trump will take the Oval Office, he won’t be primarily focused on possible changes in the US foreign policy, but on domestic discontent, reacting to criticism, and making efforts to rehabilitate all those Americans who got deeply frustrated with elections’ results and the electoral system.
Even if the US is considered by many as a country mostly active on the international arena, but, in fact, the priority number one for all US presidents remain domestic issues. The South Caucasus is not a priority for the US and will remain as such under Trump as well. The new President will have to deal with important issues with Syria, Iran, Iraq, the Saudi Arabia, the North Korea and Russia. Among priorities are the US-NATO relations, the global terrorism, the future of the EU, etc. If Trump doesn’t encounter big troubles from the beginning (the stakes are high, he will), he will make more constructive steps. Otherwise, Trump will be busy to prove to his opponents that his not a very intellectual face covers a principled and strong political leader. In those possible developments, our region has a lesser significance.
– Trump had business projects in Georgia and Azerbaijan, this means that we can say that he has some idea about our region. The President of Azerbaijan focused on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in his message. Recent years apparently were not good times for the US-Azerbaijan relations, freezing was observed in this relationship, Aliyev was often slammed by the US, the policy of Washington, in turn, was strongly criticized in Azerbaijan. Can Aliyev’s expectations from Trump change the policy of Washington toward Azerbaijani authorities and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
– As in the case of Armenia, the US will try to maintain the status quo of relations with Azerbaijan, especially since as a statesman, Trump has no right to be engaged in business and his children will take care of his business. As said in popular language, Trump will be too busy in the first few months which are going to be extremely complicated for him and his team. His advisers and the state secretary will be dealing in our region although it is not excluded that in the context of NATO-Russia-Turkey-Syria tangle, specific moves will occur in terms of defrosting the Armenian-Turkish relations where Azerbaijan also has its presence offered up by Turkey. On the other hand, there is an issue of economic and therefore political activation of Iran, and to have control over this country, both Armenian and Azeri platforms can be used. To be on the safe side, Azerbaijan certainly will try to negotiate with the United States on new conditions, especially on the matters of energy cooperation and trade, however, on the general regional scheme, I think, these do not have a significant impact. As for the Karabakh issue, being a co-chair country, US will continue its task as a negotiator but it is also possible that at some point the US will try to convey a new enthusiasm to the negotiations to achieve the solution of concessions.
– Trump was considered a candidate leading the Russia-US relations to ease. Do you think that his campaign promises will be fulfilled and we can foresee warming in the US-Russia relations, and will this possibility be dependent on Trump’s desire?
– Everybody is trying to make a forecast, and Russian political and expertise field is especially active. Russia desire to finally achieve the weakening of sanctions as the Russian economy is already showing signs of cracking, and the social discontents may ferment not by the desired scenario for the authorities. I am confident that the Russian-American relations are a priority for Trump but it is one thing to be a US presidential candidate and another thing to be a US president. The difference between them is in the awareness and unawareness of state secrets. This awareness not only changes the outlook of the president about the world and international relations but also his behavior. Trump believes that he can reach an understanding with Russians. Russians also believe that Trump will not be like Obama, and they can “mislead” him and achieve the solution of their problems. This certainly would be a failure of the US policy as Russia’s super goal is to demolish NATO and disrupt or economically weaken the EU. I think Russians calculation is that it would be easy to put a pillow under Trump’s head and dictate their will, in other words, to use Trump as a Trojan horse. But I have an inner feeling that Trump like an orange fox will turn out to be too cunning to and will cause bigger problems for Russians. Anyway, I must mention that the deterioration of US-Russian relations does not stem from the interests of Armenia at all.
– Armenia as a CSTO and EaEU member states continues to conduct negotiations on a new EU document. Even if these negotiations end successfully, how effective would it be in reality for Armenia’s development? In general, in the event of escalated relations between Russia and the West, is Armenia able to maneuver?
– The field of Armenia’s maneuvering is gradually decreasing, and although Armenia has bilateral beneficial and positive partnership relations with Western countries and structures, however, their scope, depth, type and nature are almost not changing and they mainly refer to logistical, legal and financial aid, exchange and training programs, business, tourism and so on, so to speak, to the relationship related to “soft” industries, without long-range and strategic ambitions. And this is not a maneuvering but a perfect asymmetry. Although the inner impression for Armenia’s foreign policy-makers and implementers is that Armenia is maneuvering or runs the so-called complementary policy, and many people sincerely believe in it but these fluctuations on the global picture are a trifle and not essential. Armenia is the consumer of Russia’s military-political and economic policy. To see this reality, one should pay attention not to the statements and speeches of the functionaries but it suffices to study the documents signed by Armenia and the picture will be completely different.
Emma GABRIELYAN
