According to the Chairman of the “Civil Consciousness” NGO Narek Samsonyan, it is the awakening of hope for change among the population by practicing high doses of populism as well as mitigating anti-Russian sentiments by various tricks.
– It has already been two months since a new Prime Minister was appointed in Armenia, a new government was formed. Though, two months is not enough to make proper conclusions, still, I would like to know where Karen Karapetyan’s government is heading to. In general, what kind of problems Serzh Sargsyan tried to solve by his appointment.
-The change of the government and, particularly, the selection of its leader with so much privileges granted to him were directed not from the Republic of Armenia. As far as Serzh Sargsyan is able to make things work for his interests thanks to his long-term office experience, this time he again managed to use this situation in favor of his pre-election campaign. The main function of the government led by Karen Karapetyan is to awaken hope for change among the population by practicing high doses of populism as well as to mitigate anti-Russian sentiments by various tricks. They know quite well that in the context of solving the existing political and economic crisis in our country the change of the government can in no way have any significance. Not once I have had the opportunity to say that all the problems existing in our country are the results of institutional crisis, consequently, solutions to them must be sought within this framework. The change of individuals can simply provide the ruling power with short term solutions to problems of tactical notion, what actually we are witnessing now.
– There have been forming many new political parties lately. We can clearly see that there is a rivalry for the upcoming parliamentary elections still officially undeclared, but in progress. Which political parties will have seats in the new parliament besides the RPA? What kind of reshuffles can be expected in the political field before and after the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Read also
– A tremendous number of political units have already expressed their willingness to compete for seats in the next parliament. The talks about creation of various alliances have been intensified recently. Even there are certain units created, but neither those talks, nor those units with such pompous names can have any substantial impact on the outcome of the elections. Our citizens have long been left out from political processes, and as the outcomes of recent local elections of Gyumri and Vanadzor has shown us, today even electoral processes are under total control of the country authorities.
The Chairman of the “Civil Consciousness” NGO Narek Samsonyan
As for those political powers which do completely nothing during the years between elections and only several months prior to the elections remember about their political pretension, cannot achieve any substantial success. We will witness a pure imitation of fierce electoral competition. The political field will be marked with the comeback of the former “customers” of current ruling party as well as with the politicians not once used and thrown away by the latter. The result will be as clearly planned by the ruling power. To cut a long story short, under the current conditions it has becoming more and more realistic that in the end as an outcome of the upcoming NA elections we will have a National Assembly quite similar to the State Duma of the Russian Federation. That is to say, besides the RPA, maximum from three to four political parties will have seats in the NA as a result of political behind-the-scenes agreements. Plus, these political parties will not have any substantial value system differences.
– What can you say about the thesis on nation-army brought forward by the new Minister of Defence of the Republic of Armenia Vigen Sargsyan? Will he be able to change the current political atmosphere and carry out all the reforms needed?
– This undertaking being carried out by Vigen Sargsyan perfectly fits into the logic of causality of recent government change. To change the atmosphere in the army requires eradication of corruption. This in its turn requires country authorities enjoying charismatic legitimacy, political will and, most importantly, sovereignty. Unfortunately, in this case the above mentioned three components are missing. Consequently, it’s useless to expect any genuine positive improvements from Vigen Sargsyan’s current undertaking.
-The President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin has approved of the RF government proposal to create a joint military group with Armenia and ordered to sign it. According to the agreement, to ensure the security of each and every party to the collective security in Caucasian region, a joint military group will be created, which will be able to adequately respond to military attacks, as well as to other threats and challenges threatening party security. The following wording is quite noteworthy – ”this agreement is not directed against a third country”. So, from whose possible attacks and threats should this joint military group protect the parties? Fox example, will the possible infringements of Azerbaijan on the Armenian borders be prevented?
– The idea of creating an Armenian-Russian joint military group is initially an anti-state step taken to completely eliminate our yet eroding sovereignty and can never come from the state interests of the Republic of Armenia. The passages included in this agreement you cited completely substantiate my statements made in the previous sentence. In fact, that ”joint military group” is being created to eliminate ”menaces contradicting Russian interests” in our country on time and effectively as well as to increase its control over the Armenian armed forces. The most deplorable thing in this situation is that in case this very bill enters the NA, the great majority of the Armenian politicians will favor it, as always happens.
– What predictions can you made about the Washington’s future policy on our region based on the change in the US political life after Donald Trump won the presidential elections in the United States of America? Is it possible to witness some changes in the relations between Armenia and the USA by the administration of the President-elect since businessman Trump once had business projects in Georgia and in Azerbaijan?
–If Secretary Clinton won the presidential elections then we could have witnessed some certitude in the US policy on our region, but as Donald Trump became the next president of the USA it’s quite difficult to make any predictions. No matter how many business plans Trump may have had in the region, particularly, in Azerbaijan and in Georgia, I don’t think that business plans and priorities of foreign policy can flow from each other. Besides, based on the system where the US politics works, we can clearly state that neither US foreign nor domestic policy can ever be determined by an individual. Consequently, I believe that under Trump administration there will be no significant changes in the American foreign policy priorities on our region. There may be no substantial positive changes in the relations between Armenia and Turkey, as one may have expected if Hillary Clinton became the US President, but as for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict negotiation process, Trump administration will at least continue to be true to the priorities brought forward by Obama administration.
-Trump is believed to be the US President who seeks softening in the relations between Russia and the USA, unlike Hillary Clinton. Will Trump’s promises given in the course of his presidential campaign come true? Will the relations between Russia and the USA ease? If the relations between Russia and the USA continue to be strained, will Armenia have any resource to maneuver? How should Armenia behave?
-Taking into consideration the essence and nature of the US political system, it was clear even in the course of the presidential campaign that if candidate Trump won, he would not be able to fulfill the vast majority of his controversial campaign promises. The President- elect Trump has already officially refuted some key points of candidate Trump’s campaign program. The United States of America is not a state where an individual can dictate such a political course which would contradict the state’s geopolitical interests. And if Donald Trump doesn’t want to share Richard Nixon’s presidential destiny (that is to face impeachment), he would rather be true to the US state interests, which never coincide with that of Putin’s Russia. At this moment the contradictions between Russia-the US relations are mostly within the value systems. Putin’s efforts to change the status quo of the geopolitical order created after USSR capitulation in the Cold War can never succeed, moreover, that desire cannot ever be comforted by the USA. At the moment, even Trump discusses names of such candidates to offer them key positions in his administration that are singled out by their anti-Russian attitudes. This outlines Trump’s future policy on the RF, and, fortunately, it doesn’t justify the enthusiasm of the Russian political establishment over Trump’s victory in the presidential elections. After all, I believe that under Trump administration the relations between Russia and the USA will not ease, if not aggravate. As for the present enthusiasm within Russian propaganda all over media over Trump’s victory, it will gradually turn into negative propaganda directed to revealing Trump’s inadequate political image. In this context, Armenia, unfortunately, will carry on staying loyal to the orders coming from Russia.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
