The events that took place two weeks ago reveal a reality when we can be sure in the following: Armenia’s current state of security and international relations is threatening.
The year-end military incident in Tavush region after the four-day in April was unprecedented. The atmosphere of New Year and Christmas partly dispelled the gravity of the incident, at least, psychologically. However, it leaves the impression that official Yerevan stepping on the same Russian “rake” for the second time has no intent to make proper and effectual consequences. There are all grounds to think that the “yellow card” of the April war will change the current motions of Armenia’s security. But life showed that the time resource of the next seven months in terms of political and strategic consequences was simply consumed.
This time, in the territory of the Republic of Armenia, the enemy undertook an attempt of subversive penetration which resulted in losses from our side. Why is Aliyev so confident? If the CSTO to which Armenia is a member is truly a military alliance and its member Russia is a key state, then Azerbaijan will not even theoretically dare to such encroachment. This happens in the case when they are not far from formality, if not the opposite realities of formality. These are the same realities that help Azerbaijan to evade the fulfillment of the commitments reached in Vienna and remain unpunished. It has been spoken repeatedly and must be repeated again: Russian weapon-loyal customer Aliyev’s regime is operating freely in the “corridor” for a long time which is agreed with Russia, and Turkey does not object to it.
However, the stabilization in the line of contact: the introduction of incidents excluding mechanisms, the monitoring regime, the establishment of investigations of possible incidents and the institute responsible for them under the auspices of the OSCE is already contrary to the interests of Russia. And it is very clear why. If we assume that the agreements reached in Vienna are fulfilled, then, first of all, the probability of the resumption of unpunished war significantly decreases. This means that Russia’s leverage in the relations with Armenia significant decreased, the current volumes of purchase of weapons by Azerbaijan become meaningless which weakens Moscow’s leverage in the relations with Azerbaijan too, and most importantly, Russia’s ambitions in the region are significantly bridled, and the role of the West grows which is objectively interested in the stabilization of the situation.
Read also
If our “strategic ally” responded to the four-day war with only cynical silence, then the cynical silence was added in December with the ‘powerful’ response of already former CSTO former Secretary-General. And what a joy in some circles! He said, “The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Nakhichevan is also a Republic, so what? And what is changed? Has the supply of weapons from Russia to Azerbaijan suspended, or Moscow has begun to impose Baku the agreements reached in Vienna? This ‘consoling prize’ to Armenians by leaving and today already left Bordyuzha shows one thing: “The Armenian-Russian age-old friendship” mountain gives birth not only to a mouse but also a monster which seizes the life of our soldiers and has become the number one threat to Armenia’s statehood.
In fact, the realities that have become the reason for the four-day war are not changed at all, and the escalation in December already on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is an evidence of the fact that the political leadership of Armenia has not made any conclusions from the four-day war and continues the same dangerous policy. Yerevan should be upset like a “tetchy girl” about why our representative has not assumed the “honorary” position of the CSTO Secretary-General of a structure where there is no “collective”, nor “security” nor “agreement” and nor an “organization” but must draw a very simple conclusion: the CSTO-called structure principally cannot serve the national interests of Armenia. It only constrains the opportunities of Yerevan to conduct military-technical cooperation and pursue a defense policy based on the interests of our rather than the opposite Moscow’s interests.
Three months are left for the upcoming parliamentary elections, and the situation is much more serious to make it become a subject of conjuncture manipulation. However, it is a very good opportunity for the political forces representing to the public with political claim present their approaches in these vitally important matters. Armenia needs a completely different security policy, a foreign policy, a defense policy which will release the neck of our country from the Moscow-Baku-Ankara triangle stranglehold.
Ruben MEHRABYAN
