Gevorg Melikyan, an expert of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, on Russian-Belarusian bites
– “We can do without Russian oil. It is going to be difficult. But freedom and independence are not measured by money,” said the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko a few days ago. How far can the recent tension in the relations between Moscow and Belarus develop which already acquires quite a publicity? Although Alexander Lukashenko describes the rumors of Belarus leaving the EaEU a complete concoction, anyway, can this conflict lead to a similar outcome?
– In my opinion, these predictions are a little exaggerated. There is a more speculative approach here. It is still a question for many people whether EaEU or CSTO are viable, but in this case, I think we need to look at the question from the right angle and see that such problems arise between Russia and Belarus quite often. Another question that in this case, Russia is trying unilaterally to restore the control on the border of Russia and Belarus for the third country citizens. Here, there are also question associated with agreements on gas, oil and others, and also with the fact that in the second half of February, Belarus is going to open its borders to the citizens of 80 countries. This causes a concern in Russia in the sense that these people can easily move to Russia without any control.
But I do not think that the specific decision will be the basis for Belarus to withdraw from the EaEU or CSTO. Especially since no such confirmations were made by Russia and Belarus. The political implication of the question is as follows: Russia sees that Belarus is trying to smooth its relations with the EU, continues to maintain good relations with Ukraine. This is problematic for Russia. The EU has almost lifted a number of sanctions against Belarus. A lot of people being in the so-called “black list” for the EU have come out of these lists. Thus, Russia is trying to make Belarus understand not to “flounder too much” and not to make unnecessary moves.
Read also
– What has been changed now that Alexander Lukashenko having a tough stance against the European countries and their leaders began to flirt with these people? Or, why did the EU decide to flatter Lukashenko?
– President of Belarus realizing very well that he can appear in one room alone with Russia, and surely, not so good surprises awaits him in this room, he is trying to diversify the relations and to slightly meet the European requirements halfway. In other words, to release of opposition and allow them to participate in the elections, not to prosecute the journalists or public-political figures who may speak critically of Lukashenko and his regime. These requirements are partially or more fulfilled, maybe. The opposition participated in the last elections, the violence against journalists has really lessened, many persecuted are released from jail, and of course, many have left Belarus fearing that they may again appear behind the bars.
But at least, visible steps have been taken for the EU. Belarusian President was trying to flatter. Certainly, the Europeans are not easily cheated and they also understood that especially against the background of the crisis in Ukraine, it would be difficult to have a country which is a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, and with which the EU had a very bad relationship. In other words, the moves of Belarus as a mediator are also highly appreciated by the EU. Belarusian President, naturally, took advantage of it to solve some economic problems which Russia did not like.
– Are the developments of Ukrainian scenario in Belarus possible?
– I consider it very low, in general. Belarus has a serious authoritarian system, there is no formed civil society, also a free press in a broad sense, everything is under control, and Lukashenko is trying to compensate the restriction of citizens’ rights and freedoms with social more or less acceptable conditions. There is almost no unemployment in Belarus, people get free education and free health care. In addition, in the political situation formed between Russia and Belarus, I consider such possibility almost a zero.
