Political scientist Tigran Abrahamyan considered the developments around the NKR dangerous
– Mr. Abrahamyan, the NKR process seems to be moving by inertia. The parties are talking about the possibility of a meeting at the level of Foreign Ministers, even though there is no clarity in this direction. How do you assess the created situation?
– If I say it in short, then dangerous. Azerbaijan seems to extend time and makes more efforts to create an imitation of being interested in the process. But in reality, they are more thinking about creating grounds to justify the escalation or sharp aggravations. In any case, its actions are a proof of it. The NKR Defense Army official releases indicate that the situation is rapidly changing from time to time. Starting from passive firing of small arms to an attempt of penetration by subversive investigation group, a captive Azerbaijani soldier, and more mortars.
For an average statistic citizen, it is a little difficult to understand what is going on in the contact line. Azerbaijani armed forces are seeking for weak points in various sections of the border line to create opportunities for penetration by subversive groups or for carrying out intelligence actions. In some cases, the activation of the Azerbaijani side just pursues a goal to use psychological or another type of pressure. Sometimes, as a result, we have what we had a few days ago when the Defense Army soldiers captivated a soldier of the Azerbaijani special squad when pushing the diversion operation back. As for the use of mortars, the use of artillery even if it is not considered a heavy artillery is dangerous in itself. I have a fear that even this situation will not last long, and the calibers of used weapons will grow.
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– Will we witness an active phase of subversive operation in the future? The trends seem to be available.
– With the installation of technical equipment in different directions of the line of contact of Karabakh-Azerbaijani troops, anti-sabotage and preventive measures are carried out. A big number of subversive operations preventive incidents have been reported. The operations of the enemy in the sections adjacent to the contact line have become more predictable. Hence, I think that the Azerbaijani provocations will be displayed in a different way in the future: activation of sniper groups, increase of calibers of weapons in the direction of Armenian positions, active intelligence activities, including drones.
– What is visible in the Azerbaijani sector of the contact line? Which measurements does Azerbaijan focus after the April war?
– If we can conventionally call the 4-5 months following the combat operations in April as a period of “engineering war”, then the last months can be described as a period of active movements, accumulations and training processes.
– Azerbaijan increases its military budget every year and spends a lot of money for the procurement of arms. What should we expect this year?
– The military budget expenditures of Azerbaijani draft budget for 2017 will increase by 63.3% or AZN 1 billion, by reaching 2642 billion manat (1.48 billion dollars according to the current exchange rate) where 1.27 billion manats will be allocated to the Ministry of Defence (about USD 713 million), to the national security – 111.9 million manat (USD 63 million), and military industry, internal troops and other structures – 1.23 billion manat (USD 690 million). In 2016, a 1.8 billion manat was allocated for military expenditures of which 1.7 billion to defense, another 108.9 million manats to the national security and the rest for other purposes. Later, the military expenditures grew by 391 million manats or 21.3 percent. But this does not yet mean that no other monetary sources will be added in Azerbaijan for military needs.
Azerbaijan directs financial resources for the defense sector from various foundations as well as from personal funds of big businesses. However, if in 2013, the whole military expenditure of Azerbaijan exceeded Armenian’s defense expenditures by 7, then in 2017, this difference fell twice as much.
P.S. In the evening of February 8, the NKR Defense Army already reported that a day before, at 17:00-18:50 time, the enemy shelled the combat positions located in the eastern direction of Defense Army with a direct target from D-44 type 85 mm. firing positions situated near its residencies. In addition to guns, Azerbaijani troops were using different caliber mortars in the direction of East and North (Talish).
