As interpreted by political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan, the developments in the Karabakh-Azerbaijani border are still proceeding in the negative direction, and if these trends are continued, the only thing that can be expected is to maintain this situation. “In other words, not to allow further aggravation of the situation as there is no negotiation process, a clear position of mediators, instead, there is an escalation of the situation in the border,” said political scientist to Aravot.am.
Last year, during the period preceding April 1, and in the same period this year, the Azerbaijani actions are very similar, as analyzed by political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan, “The degree of tension is growing but I would never recommend perceiving it as a recurrence of April scenario, the so-called a signal. This very war can this time begin not in April but in February or later. We should not think that the same scenario was used and we should constantly expect the worst possible developments.
I am more than convinced that if Azerbaijan had the potential to resume a war it would have waged it back in the end of last year when it became clear that anyway, Azerbaijan is evading negotiations, and apparently, cannot eliminate the consequences of its failure in April thru negotiations and politically. In other words, Azerbaijan needs this war in any way, however, it does not have the sufficient resources to start a war. I think that Azerbaijan now will increase the tension by using cannons in the border because it is trying to create an imitation of a war, create a situation where there is actually no war but everybody is talking about it. In this way, they are trying to correct the consequences of the war in April and to achieve the point that the OSCE Minsk Group members would offer the parties to start all over again.”
