It seems to me that in the near historical future nationalist political forces will succeed in Armenia. I do not know when it is going to happen, maybe in 10 or 20 years, but following the developments of our country and the world, one can foresee the following: if a serious nationalist force appears, then it will acquire an extensive support, and money, oppressions, and fraud will be unable to resist it.
Perhaps it will be highly modificated Armenian Revolutionary Federation, perhaps new movements will formulate, but it seems that path is already seen. I personally do not like that path, I will be very glad if small and medium owners – people who are not rich but are able to “make both ends meet”, are able to self-organize and formulate an authority expressing its interests. That class is the basis of the liberal conception not the up-to-date feudal with poor inner world and similarly poor vocabulary. The oligarchy does not need rules of the game, they need privileges, uncontrollability and “intransparency”.
But to found actually liberal orders (do not be surprised) very strict, I would even say – cruel moral, probably religious limitations are required. One will not build capitalism with “prestige”, “warmth” and “bribery for good purposes”, it is possible to build by virtue of dignity, self-moderation, and strict decency. As long as our society does not worship these values, a middle class does not formulate. Nor real market relations. Nevertheless, both the state and the society have the need to modernization. Stalin’s, Hitler’s or Pinochet’s options will not work in Armenia – there are no recourses.
Therefore, certain ideologies will be needed, if we want – aberrations around which the society will unite. They, I assume, will be nationalist ideologies. The society possessing several oligarchs, few percentage of middle class and more than 90 percent lumpens needs illusions which that overwhelming majority will pursue. Otherwise, the majority would not follow 10.000 AMDs. They will be seen tomorrow. I mean, throughout the upcoming 10-20 years. Those illusions can draw the government out of stagnation. Assuredly, they are very dangerous as well. But I do not see other path yet.
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ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
