The columnist of the foundation “Jamestown” Armen Grigoryan thinks that The US will not act more actively in the South Caucasus, which causes some danger.
-In Armenia, there is excitement about the fact that, finally, the position of Secretary General of CSTO (The Collective Security Treaty Organization) took the representative of Armenia Yuri Khachaturov. And the chairman of the board of the EEC (The Eurasian Economic Union) is Tigran Sargsyan. Are these positions positive for Armenia? Particularly, what possible influences may have the position of Secretary General of CSTO on the security issues of the Republic of Armenia?
-There are as many positive effects from the position of Tigran Sargsyan as the chairman of the board of the EEC, as from the position of Secretary General. That is of no use. The fact, that the appointment of Khachaturov took place, speaks about the thing that Russia has settled disputes with other “allies”. And Yuri Khachaturov is going to obey the whims of the “allies”, in the first place, certainly, of Russia. It is no matter that he is a citizen of Armenia.
-Armenia and the EU have signed in advance the new agreement of bilateral relations before the parliamentary elections. First of all, what do you think Armenia will go to the end, will sign the document, at this time Moscow won’t be against the signing a new agreement with the EU? And the RA Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian has announced that after the successful conclusion of a new agreement with the EU, Armenia is going to conduct negotiations on the visa regime liberalization with the EU. Do you think it is possible?
-I do not think it is reasonable to express optimism before signing the agreement and then the ratification. Time will tell. Finally, what happened on 3 September 2013, actually, nobody had predicted. Even now it is not known what is going to blow Vladimir Putin’s mind. Whether he is going to make new tension in the relations with the EU, also compelling his vassal to act accordingly or not?
The results of the French and German elections, the economic situation, because of that the possible actions of social protest in Russia, various other factors may have an impact. But after signing the agreement, if it happens, it is possible to start negotiations on the visa regime liberalization.
-Just a few months after the election of a new US president it is turned out, that it was naivety to expect a thaw in US-Russian relations. What developments can be anticipated in US-Russia relations; the tension is going to become deeper or it is going to relieve? How do you see US policy in our region? Whether the Trump administration will leave the South Caucasus to Russia?
-I think it will grow, especially, because Vladimir Putin’s hopes were not justified; division of spheres of influence should not happen in Ukraine and elsewhere. But so far the United States is probably will not act more actively in the South Caucasus and it arouses some danger in the sense that Putin may go on another adventure in order, at least, both to incite a war to solve the internal problems and force the West to negotiate with him, the same way as he did in Syria when he intervened.
-The constitutional referendum held in Turkey and many people marked the end of a secular Turkey. There is a political reform process in Turkey, perhaps, as well as the phase adjustment of foreign policy positions. What impact these developments will have on Turkey’s regional policy, on relations with neighboring countries, particularly, with Russia.
-Turkey, presumably, will try to increase its influence as a regional power. At the same time, in order to consolidate his power, mobilize supporters, silence opponents ( “internal enemy”) Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be required on the one hand achievements (e.g. through strengthening in Syria, at the same time through preventing the Kurds to move on), on the other hand external enemy, whose role will no longer be sufficient to reserve only Fethullah Gülen. Russia and Turkey will become more similar to each other as they have a common enemy in the conditions of “Sovereign democracy” regime. They are the model critics, particularly, in the face of the EU. For the survival of both Russian and Turkish regime, the existence of the internal enemies (“fifth column,” “traitors,” “foreign agents”) and external enemies is extremely important. Turkey and Russia can go further rapprochement being natural allies against democracy and modernization.
-The negotiations between the Defense Ministries of Iran and Azerbaijan were held recently in Tehran. During the meeting with Zakir Hasanov within the official visit to Tehran Iranian Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Assistance Minister Hossein Dehghan made a remarkable statement calling Armenian and Azerbaijani parties to achieve a peaceful resolution of the conflict and do it “without the intervention of a third party.” How do you explain the recent activity of Iran?
“Iran has some projects and only one of them is to open the Black Sea transport corridor which discussions are underway. The risk of renewed hostilities, naturally, does not contribute to the implementation of these projects. Moreover, military operations, the probability of which remains high, are likely to be the basis of a third force “peacekeeping” operation and to confirm perfect control over the region. Therewithal, Azerbaijan is constantly trying to increase the level of involvement of another third force, which is Turkey, and together with it to also use the Islamic factor. Such practices threaten the strategic interests of Iran and as the final solution to the conflict is not realistic yet, Tehran is trying to make understand that it expects to maintain the status quo, at least.
Emma GABRIELYAN
