Recently, the enemy fired in the direction of bordering Baghanis in Tavush province. Fortunately, there are no casualties, but the reigning tension gives way to pessimistic and ominous predictions. The specter of the war is roaming, knocking on more and more doors, causing tensions in various parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line. There are discussions about the danger of the war not only in both opponent countries but also in the international expertise centers.
The “International Crisis Group” (ICG) research organization has published a report on the Karabakh conflict, considering the resumption of large-scale war in Karabakh highly possible.
According to the report titled “Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds”, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point after the April 2016 escalation.
Political and security conditions that prompted the April 2016 escalation have become acuter. It is mentioned that since January 2017, deadly incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and antitank weapons have occurred with varying degrees of intensity. The CG researchers note that the settlement process has stalled, making the use of force tempting, at least for tactical purposes. Today, both sides appear ready for confrontation. According to CG, these tensions could develop into large-scale conflict, prompting the main regional powers to intervene.
