“Escalation is not a war. Escalations have always happened and will continue to happen, when, for example, co-chairs visit the region, or there is a negotiation meeting. And a war implies serious political changes, serious casualties”, said Russian political analyst Sergey Markedonov, referring to the report of the International Crisis Group, according to which “War clouds are gathering on Karabakh”.
According to him, the problem is that the likelihood of violence in the Artsakh-Azerbaijan contact line increases, moreover, the slogan “Peace to Karabakh” is groundless, because there is no peace if the positions of the parties are not considered. “To someone, peace is good, for the other, not”, Markedonov noted.
He believes that the next escalation will happen on July-August, that is 2-3 weeks after the co-chairs’ visit to the region. “Let me stress it again, this does not mean that the escalation might turn into a war. The escalation does not have to be like the April war, it might be as of the May events of this year”, concluded the expert.
Luiza SUKIASYAN
