Political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan does not see preconditions for Azerbaijan to set out large-scale military operations.
“Today I do not see the potential in the armed forces of Azerbaijan which would allow Aliyev to presuppose that he can start a war and succeed in that war. If an awake assessment of the situation in Azerbaijan takes place, they will avoid of war, will try to manipulate the threat of war in political or expertise frameworks as it was done by the announcement of the International Crisis Group”: told the political scientist.
According to him Azerbaijani do not have the opportunity to commence a war but try to imitate as if they do via tension on the borders, carrying out scandalous cases or increasing various expert evaluations: “They do everything for the conversation about the war to be in place, but the war not to be. It is well-known to all of us what group is the International Crisis Group, the relations of the leaders of that group with the Turkish and Azerbaijani lobbyist companies and their service of the interest of the latters is known. Azerbaijan needs the world to speak of war, thereby the situation to change at least, which has been formed during the negotiation process. As stated by Aliyev, they put pressure on him to recognize the Independence of Artsakh. He needs a situation shift, and in this case, it is possible solely through war or the threat of war, they do not have resources for war, implement threatening by every possible means and through the expertise and lobbyist structures and reports of the International Crisis Group alike.”
As stated by the political scientist, in reading the mentioned report attentively it becomes apparent that not a serious analysis is in place based on facts, but simply a threat of war: “The situation has been tense on Artsakh border since 2014, that is already a precondition for any possible development. Particularly after the April War, when Azerbaijan had rather big losses in manipulating different political issues, during the negotiation process, Azerbaijan needed a war like this to fix the situation, it is possible that Azerbaijan needed this war to solve domestic issues similarly.”
Arpine SIMONYAN
