The Turkish economy grew five percent in the first quarter of the year. This was announced by the state’s statistical authority Turkstat in June. But is the Turkish economy really on the up? Gareth Jenkins has his doubts. The expert on Turkey from the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Istanbul has lived in the country since the end of the 1980s. He has witnessed many political and economic ups and downs. Deutsche Welle reports.
“Last year, the Turkish statistical institute abruptly changed the way economic data was measured, and suddenly the Turkish economy was much better off than all the analysts and experts had believed. We still do not understand how Turkstat calculated these statistics.”
The Turkish branch of the German Chambers of Commerce (AHK), an industry association, has its headquarters in a smartly renovated old building on the Bosporus. It’s painted white, has a large garden and a view of the Bosporus. Managing Director Jan Nöther can’t complain. Maybe it’s because of where he works. In a conversation with DW, Nöther sees the economic situation of the country in a positive light.
“The change in sentiment generated by the positive first quarter is welcome. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2017 was supported in particular by a significant increase in exports, state-supported infrastructure and other projects and domestic consumption.”
How differently statistics can be evaluated. Though Jenkins also sees an increase in consumption, the development expert thinks this trend is a flash in the pan.
“The government has seized on a whole series of short-term measures, such as guarantees for bank loans, which, of course, support short-term consumption. At the same time short-term measures will have a very negative effect in the medium term, for example, when people cannot repay their loans.”