9 years ago the South Caucasus was having a war. Besides the war between us and Azerbaijan conditioned by Artsakh issue commenced in 1991, another war had burst between Russia and Georgia which was extremely short because of the obvious inequality of the powers. The most logical explanation of the events of that “5-day” war, in my opinion, is the following: the Americans had “pushed” Saakashvili to try to solve the issue of South Ossetia by force, understanding that it would not succeed and Russia would interfere, but also calculating that it will be an additional occasion to accuse Russia of something. In this case, Saakashvili appeared to be so naïve and heedless to take that step hoping that “the West will help us”. The West helped solely “morally”, and Russia behaved as predicted, as every empire: took an advantage and attacked Georgia, invaded into Georgia until Gori and then legally recognized the territories which were already out of Georgia’s control, as independent states.
In the end, 1/ Georgia lost its two territories, 2/ Georgia was released from Russia’s control and continued to build a state which gradually releases itself of “post-soviet illnesses” (Armenians do not have a need for long explanations on what it is), 3/ Russia satisfied its imperial aspirations, showed its “muscles” to the world, took a revenge on Georgians disobeying Russia and now it has to feed two small states, in one of which, let me say, such a “chaos” reigns, that even Russian tourists become a target of attack, 4/ Russia lost Georgia not merely as an ally, but as a friend-state.
I hesitate to say how much satisfied or dissatisfied are the citizens of Russia and Georgia of that situation. I suppose, that for the majority of Russians in particular, all that is, as they say, “до лампочки” (they do not care), and Georgians, the opposite, consider themselves the winning party overall. I can state assuredly that this situation is not going to last because of a simple reason implying that Russia will not remain in this region forever. A lot of people now consider it impossible, but the collapse of the Soviet Union seemed similarly impossible as well. Now opinions are in place in Russia already constituting – let us leave the neighbors, forget about pointless ambitions and engage in our inner issues. This opinion is expressed not by “Democrats” or “pro-western” people, but people who, as they say, calculate the resources of their country – economic, political, and civilization “on paper”. Empire is an expensive pleasure by all means.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
