Aravot.am talked to political analyst Narek Minasyan about possible developments in the negotiation field on the Artsakh conflict settlement.
“As we know, a meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers is scheduled for September. According to some expert assessments, there is a likelihood of a resumption of negotiations. What prerequisites and possible developments can you emphasize?”.
“Unfortunately, there are no positive prerequisites in the recent years, especially after the April war, in terms of making progress in the negotiation process. There is no mutual trust between the conflicting sides, which is quite important in the context of any conflict settlement. According to preliminary information, in such unfavourable conditions, the Nalbandian-Mamedyarov meeting will take place in September. Most likely, the agenda of the meeting will focus not on issues related to political negotiations on the conflict settlement, but issues of creating the necessary conditions for their progress. These conditions have been repeatedly voiced, and these are also partly expressed in the agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg. So far, the Azerbaijani side tries to avoid the fulfilment of its obligations, and the next meeting of the Foreign Ministers still cannot guarantee that there will be significant steps in that direction. It is also noteworthy that the Co-Chairs also understand quite well that expecting progress in the political negotiations without the establishment of an atmosphere of mutual trust is unrealistic. This is evidenced by the recent interview of Richard Hoagland, US Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, where he emphasizes the importance of avoiding new escalations, as confidence-building measures, considering the withdrawal of snipers from the border, the increase in the number of monitoring observers, the control over the maintenance of ceasefire regime through technical means, etc”.
“Azerbaijan, traditionally, uses border incidents before and after such meetings. In your opinion, what kind of manifestations will this behaviour have this time, considering the growing economic and political crisis in Azerbaijan?”.
“It is no secret for anyone that Azerbaijan is quite unpredictable. The absence of free press, opposition, and civil society in Azerbaijan gives the authorities of that country an opportunity to speculate the thesis of the so-called “Armenian aggression” for the solution or prevention of various domestic problems. These problems are of social, political, and lately also economic nature. Taking all this into consideration, naturally, we can never rule out the possibility of new provocations by Azerbaijan (including before and/or after the planned meeting of the foreign ministers). We deal with a very authoritative country whose authorities do not have any counter-action in the decision-making process”.
“How do you think the tense relations between Russia and the United States will influence the role of the OSCE Minsk Group member US and Russia in the conflict settlement process? What new steps are likely to be taken by these countries?”.
“Fortunately, the tension between the United States, which is the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair, and Russia has not yet affected the Karabakh conflict settlement process. The OSCE Minsk Group, despite the contradictions between the two countries, has always been, and I hope will remain one of the few bridges, where they cooperate and have a fairly positive experience of joint work. As for possible developments, I think it’s still too early to make pessimistic predictions”.
Luiza SUKIASYAN
