Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who is in Baku on an official visit, announced that Russia would be happy to see Azerbaijan as a member of the EAEU. Putting the RF Ministry of Defence TV and Lavrov’s statements together makes it clear that Russia threatens Armenia not to sign an agreement with the EU, otherwise the consequences would be the same as in the case of Ukraine, in particular territorial losses.
When speaking about the four-day war, many expressed an opinion that it was part of the scenario of making Azerbaijan a member of the EAEU. According to this scenario, Baku had to reconquer the liberated territories of Karabakh and other territories in a manner agreed on with Russia, and then at the request of the Armenian side, Russia would bring its forces to Karabakh, and make Azerbaijan a member of the EAEU. The aforementioned combination has a special meaning: the problem is that Azerbaijan will never agree to become a member of the EAEU unless Russia helps to capture the liberated territories, and Armenia will never agree to Azerbaijan’s membership to the EAEU if Russia does not put it in its place (let us remind, that decisions in the EAEU are made by consensus). The four-day war must have been welcomed by Azerbaijan and knocked Armenia down, but, fortunately, it did not happen.
Now the Russians actually remind that this scenario still exists: the warning about Ukraine and Lavrov’s statement cannot mean anything else. Interestingly, on November 14,15 Serzh Sargsyan was in Moscow on a visit. He also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to experts, the visit should have been connected with the document to be signed in Brussels and Serzh Sargsyan should have understood what kind of attitude the Russian President has towards the signing of the EU-Armenia agreement. It’s hard to say what Putin said to Sargsyan. But the new September 3 has not taken place so far, that is, Armenia did not announce its refusal to sign an agreement with the EU. But now, three days before the launch of the Eastern Partnership Summit, tensions on the planned signing of the EU-Armenia agreement are rising.
