US sanctions on Russian military-industrial sector may contribute to reduction of militarization level in South Caucasus, which, in its turn, will reduce the risk of war resumption in the region. On the other hand, the management of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement process will not become the monopoly of Russia, since Moscow implements this function through the supply of weapons. In global sense, we cannot exclude that through Russian sanctions, Washington can dramatically increase its role in the Karabakh conflict settlement process, if the South Caucasus becomes a priority in the White House’s agenda.
On the other hand, the US sanctions against Russian military-industrial complex can hit Azerbaijan more than Armenia, because the militarization of Armenia is necessary to maintain balance in the arms race with Azerbaijan. Moreover, the limitation of supplies of Russian arms to the South Caucasus can dramatically increase the level of sovereignty of Armenia, because Moscow will be deprived of one of the main levers of blackmailing against Armenia.
The weakening of the Russian Empire can create conditions for the establishment of institutional mechanisms for regional cooperation and security in the South Caucasus. And the purpose of American sanctions is the collapse of Putin’s system, of the empire.
Sargis ARTSRUNI
