‘Aravot’ interviewee is Georgian political scientist, Gela Vasadze
– The US Ambassador to Russia, Jon Huntsman, has announced that the report of the American administrative staff on the sanctions against Russia will be ready on January 29. As stated by Anders Oslunden, the report will cover the half of the “Russian trillion”, which will encompass “Gazprom” and “Rosneft” entrepreneurships. What influence will it have on post-Soviet countries overall, and, Armenia and Georgia in particular?
– To answer this question, let us first and foremost reply to the question on what goes on generally. According to me, certain forces after Crimea and Donbass (moreover, very influential forces from Western political institutes, we speak of the United States on the first place, but not only) understood that if measures intended for restraining Russia are not undertaken, the Russian enhanced policy towards the West might have serious consequences not only for the post-Soviet countries but also for the West as a whole. That thesis was confirmed when Moscow tried to interfere in the political processes of the US and European states. The policy of struggle against Russia, which entirely falls under the paradigm of the history of the Western countries, has a maximum program today. The aim of this program is the change of the existing Russian power, more precisely, the replacement of the current power with a more loyal power, which can come to an agreement with the West. However, this, so to say, is a long-term objective. In a short-term period, the overall discourse of the policy of the Western countries will lead to Russia’s economic downfall, withdrawal of Russia from international projects and the reduction of its influence on the international politics.
The report you mentioned fits into both short-term and long-term objectives, inasmuch as it directly hits on both Russian political and economical elite. Of course, there are forces in the West which think differently, but it is evident that the confrontation with Russia is the basic direction of the Western politics and there is no place for concessions.
Will a power shift take place in Russia? When will it happen and how? These are quite hypothetical questions. But the fact that the steps undertaken by the West will contribute to Russia’s weakening, is obvious. And this circumstance, assuredly, will have long-term consequences for our region. And the consequences are multi-vector. For example, the negative impact of those processes both on Armenia and Georgia is predictable. In this case, with a larger scale on Armenia and less on Georgia, forasmuch as the integration levels of our economies in the Russian economy is not comparable. Nevertheless, it does not mean that this will not be reflected on Georgia.
– What processes are more likely at the military, political, economic or security platform?
– It is a good question. From the first impression it may seem that Russia’s overall weakening will reduce its opportunities of having an influence on the situation in the region. But in reality, everything can be reversed. Having serious tools of influence on the South Caucasus, for example, military bases in Armenia and occupied territories of Georgia, Moscow can use them for creating subject matters for bargaining with the West. This is a very dangerous way. However, as we saw in Ukraine and Syria, such risks do not stop the incumbent Russian authorities. It is difficult to say what will happen in our case. But the denial of such plot, and it implies another military conflict with Russia’s participation or under its auspices, will be a senseless optimism in our region. The impossible theatre for military operations will be Nagorno-Karabakh where the war continues. Consequently, no efforts are needed for activating military actions. Besides, Moscow will have no connection and it can even undertake the role of the “peace-builder”.
However, let us delay apocalyptic plots, especially when in my opinion, its likelihood has decreased and not increased in the recent years. In any case, if the West starts attacking the forefronts of Russia, Moscow will start to extend its already great influence on South Korea. And it is less possible that those attempts will be positive for our states.
– What will happen to Russian integration unions? How much will it relate to the Russian troops beyond Russia’s territory?
– Let us say, nothing threatens to the Russian integration unions, furthermore, the troops beyond Russia’s borders yet. Moreover, I have already spoken about it, if the Russian influence on international politics and economy decreases, the Russian authorities will try to compensate the same influence wherever it is possible. And the majority of Kremlin’s opportunities are with the integration partners, Armenia encompassed. To consider that there is no place on which the influence can be extended is a naivety, the issue is – how it will happen.
– Georgia and Ukraine have reached an agreement with the United States on buying defensive armament, what will be changed in the relations with Russia? And what influence will it have on the evolvements in the post-Soviet territory?
– Hardly any change will take place in Russia’s relations with Georgia or Ukraine because of American defensive armament supply. The existence of the occupied territories and not the presence of American weaponry is a decisive factor in Georgia’s relations with the Russian Federation.
As regards the supply fact, here we speak not about the military component, despite it exists, as much as political one. The implementation of Georgia’s territorial defense project, in the framework of which Georgia has received “Javelin” anti-tank systems, as well as French anti-air defense system, they presume that relative to the changing political situation, the Western countries consider Georgia and the whole South Caucasus not as a peripheral region with low expressed interests but as a single wing of resistance with Moscow. We can talk as much as possible about whether it is legal or illegal to use the term “new cold war” for the current situation, but it is simply an aesthetic issue. In reality, we have what we have – American weapons in a post-Soviet area, moreover, in the Baltic States.
– Are there expectations connected with the trilateral partnership with Armenia and Iran in Georgia? I imply the ways of communication, energy, external trade, according to the formation of the corridor from the Black Sea to the Persian Gulf by Rouhani, which has been voiced in Tehran and Yerevan in a row of times.
– As for Georgia and Armenia, for Iran similarly, such projects can be very useful. However, let us be realistic, neither Russia nor the United States will allow the implementation of such massive projects in the current political situation. Those projects have been on the table since long ago, approximately 10 years. Moreover, China is ready to fund them via the Asian Bank for Reconstruction and Development since long ago, they are being realized partly, but very slowly. Honestly speaking, I do not believe in the prospects of fast implementation of such projects for very political reasons.
Ami CHICHAKYAN
