Our interviewee is the former Ambassador of the US to Armenia, former American Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group and the director of the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, Estonia, Matthew Bryza.
– In days the Minister of Defence of Azerbaijan, Zakir Hasanov mentioned that it is possible for the war to recur in the conflict zone of Karabakh at any moment. How much realistic is the war presently?
– It is not likely for Azerbaijani side to initiate a new war, especially when the presidential elections are close. At the same time, I do not know what the Minister of Defence, Hasanov has had in his mind making the announcement you now cite. It is true that the military conflict may erupt at any moment on the border. At the same time, the recurrence of the large-scale war will require an essential time and efforts for mobilizing the heavy weapons and the large quantity of the troops to the destination. The threat of the war, nevertheless, is a traditional diplomatic tool which the US President, Donald Trump reminds us of in the context of South Korea.
– The American intelligence had mentioned in its annual report that the tension in Artsakh might convert into a large-scale military conflict in which Russia may be involved, for supporting its regional ally, Yerevan. How do you estimate that report overall? Is there a possibility for the recurrence of war after the inner-political changes in Armenia and Azerbaijan?
– As I mentioned earlier, I agree that military clashes are possible on the border at any given moment, but I do not believe that a long-term and large-scale conflict is possible without essential preparations. Moreover, I do not believe that Armenia or Azerbaijan are interested in the recurrence of the war, even if the threat of a large-scale violence recurrence is used for negotiations.
Araks MARTIROSYAN