Replacing Rex Tillerson with Mike Pompeo in the US State secretary’s position will bring to some, and I fear, not positive changes. Although Tilerson is not a diplomat by profession (as Pompeo is), he is a restrained and a balanced man and has a good negotiation experience as a businessman. The business managers working in that level know that they should talk to any, even competitor colleague with respect, in all cases leaving an opportunity of saving his/her reputation. In contrast with Trump, who often enters the ring to fist fight with the enemy with the evident wish of knocking him out which is not so common in the contemporary politics.
In all cases, it is likely that the analysts, who insist that Pompeo is going to conduct a rougher policy towards Russia and especially Iran which is not beneficial to us, Armenians at all, are right. Pompeo, still in office for the position of the Director of the Central Intelligence, lately contradicted to Putin, reconfirming the condemnations that the very Russian state servants have tried to interfere in the US elections, although Putin was insisting in the interview given to NBC, that those people are perhaps “simply Russian” and have not connection with the Kremlin. I think Pompeo will support the British government, which accuses Moscow of poisoning the “traitor” spy and his daughter in fact, more decisively than Trump does. Such approaches are of course closer to Trump’s “macho-like” inclinations regardless of the circumstance that the US President often expresses his personal sympathy of Putin.
Trump’s and Pompeo’s opinions on Iran coincide better. It can be predicted that in the near future the United States will withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran although there is no serious legal ground for that. Thus, the relations will become intense not only with Iran but also the other states participating in the deal: European States, China and Russia. According to some signs, Tillerson was securing from such sharp move. Furthermore, it is very likely that the US “trade conflict” with Europe and China is going to be sharper.
If we take into consideration that the Russian leader has no less “macho-like” inclinations, one can state with confidence that interesting times are yet to come.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
