Expert of the Armenian Institute for International and Security Affairs, political scientist Armen Vardanyan thinks that, unlike Armenia, only cosmetic changes will be made in the Electoral Code of Azerbaijan.
Let us remind, that OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) has published the final report on extraordinary presidential elections in Azerbaijan on April 11, which advises the country’s authorities to revise the Electoral Code before the next election.
In an interview with Aravot.am, Armen Vardanyan expressed an opinion that there is no need to expect anything else than cosmetic changes as Azerbaijan realizes that it will lead to the fall of Ilham Aliyev’s power: “Some cosmetic changes are possible, but I do not think radical changes can happen in Electoral Code of Azerbaijan”.
Mr. Vardanyan stated that there is a situation in Azerbaijan where the opposition boycotts the national elections for numerous times already. This was the case in the parliamentary elections of 2015 and in the April presidential elections, as the Azerbaijani opposition believes that these elections are formal in nature. Ilham Aliyev collected 86 percent of votes in the presidential elections on the principle: “I will collect as many votes as I wish”, while parliamentary elections are held by the majoritarian electoral system, in which an oligarch or other representatives of the authorities from each electoral district receives votes, and as a result, the opposition is unable to have a representation in the parliament and become a counterbalance to the authorities. Referring to the Electoral Code reforms, Mr. Vardanyan said: “The changes will not be the same as we have with the common consensus. In any case, the opposition will be dissatisfied with these changes”.
In response to the question whether it is possible that something similar to the latest developments that took place in Armenia will take place also in Azerbaijan, as the Azerbaijani society reacted positively to those developments, Armen Vardanyan said: “Sooner or later this happens in dictatorial regimes, especially if we take into consideration that there is a serious dissatisfaction with the government in Azerbaijan and the authorities are trying to suppress that mass”.
Touching upon the recent developments in Gyanja, Armen Vardanyan said: “Mayor of Gyanja is Aliyev’s closest friend. Only the tough measures taken by the authorities led to the fact that the problem was solved in favor of the government. They did the same in Sumgayit, where the actions were more of a preventive nature, as the people had not gone out to the streets”.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
