At the press conference held several days ago, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated the idea that if Russia gives no permission, Aliyev might not start a war, an escalation. According to him: “We all understand that Russia, as a superpower, is able to prevent war resumption in our region, and I cannot believe that Armenia’s strategic partner and friend Russia will not use its levers to prevent the resumption of hostilities in the region”.
Aravot.am asked David Babayan, Spokesperson for Artsakh President, whether why we do not negotiate with Russia instead of Azerbaijan, if the resumption of war is directly linked to the will of the Russian Federation. David Babayan responded: “The problem is that Russia, as one of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries, one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and finally, as a country that has interests and influence in our region, is naturally in favor of establishing peace in this region, and not only Russia, but the US and France as well.
The settlement of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict is the only platform where cooperation between the West and Russia is evident. The cooperation is ceased almost in any other sphere, excluding the cooperation in the space. But on the other hand it is clear that Russia is not the only player. In order to understand when the probability of a war resumption increases, we must analyze the factors that can contribute and become a catalyst to the war resumption. This is a matter of both internal and external problems. Of course, first of all, the resumption of war depends largely on Azerbaijan because the country does not conceal its real intentions and does not hide that it is ready to destroy the Republic of Artsakh, Armenia, as they want to take over Shushi, Sevan.
It is clear what this country wants and Turkey supports them as it has always done. But the possibility, of course, depends on two factors. First, we should be able to suspend any action. The more united Armenia, Artsakh, Diaspora, and our society are, the less hostile they are towards each other, the less likely there will be a resumption of a war.
Azerbaijan will realize that the war will be a catastrophe for itself first of all. These are the internal factors. As for the external, the international community is against this war given the humanitarian factors, and the fact that willingly or unwillingly they will be involved in the war too. Russia will have to interfere, Turkey will stand by Azerbaijan, and a huge explosion can occur. Thus, both for their own interests and humanitarian factors, they would not want a resumption of hostilities.
Besides, the Russian Federation also has a very important deterrent role not only from the point of view of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict but also in general in the Transcaucasus. Making statements about patriotism is not patriotism. Do you imagine our situation with Turkey, if there is no symbolic presence of this Russian base in Armenia? Will we be able to control two fronts alone?”.
In response to our question, whether we do not exaggerate Russia’s role and influence, David Babayan said: “No, the opposite”.
Hripsime JEBEJYAN
