Both Yerevan and Stepanakert realize that there is a danger of war resumption. Moreover, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan states that Russia will be able to prevent a new war, that is will restrain Azerbaijan’s aggression about the current status quo. Whether what guarantees Russian colleagues have given to Pashinyan, and why he is confident that Russia, which has armed Azerbaijan, will act as a peacekeeper, is another topic.
Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan’s messages are of more concern at the moment. Tonoyan has openly declared that in case of military aggression, even a limited scale military action by Azerbaijan, the Armenian side will respond through punitive actions, using all its arsenal of weapons, including long-range missile systems, and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states cannot restrain the Armenian side from responding.
However, although it is difficult to say that the Minister’s statement was unexpected, it is worth in any case to understand what is hidden between the lines of his words.
Does the military-political leadership of Armenia speak about the danger of war resumption in general or is there any concrete, operative data on Azerbaijan’s intentions, that is why the Armenian Defense Minister is trying to put pressure on the Azerbaijani side through statements and prevent the resumption of a new military conflict whether on Artsakh-Azerbaijani contact line or on Nakhichevan territory?
Alexander Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of Moscow’s Center for Political and Military Analysis, said that he, of course, does not know and cannot know what operative data the Armenian Defense Ministry has on war resumption or the intentions of the Azerbaijani side, but it is obvious that Azerbaijan is arming not without a reason.
“I can repeat once more that Azerbaijan is unlikely to purchase such amount of weapons without a reason. It is obvious that Azerbaijan is buying that weapon for war”, said Khramchikhin adding that the war can resume at any moment as the Karabakh issue remains unsettled and there are no prerequisites for resolving this issue peacefully.
According to Khramchikhin, the possibility of a resumption of war is high, but it is difficult to predict when it will happen.
Aram SARGSYAN