On why the Armed Forces of Russia did not seize Tbilisi in 2008, on so called soft power and all that Mikheil Saakashvili can sacrifice for the sake of returning Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Read a part of Saakashivili’s interview to novayagazeta.ru over the aforementioned below.
– Caucasus changes very fast, look at Armenia. There is no control, and the sole military control and Russian propaganda cannot keep the nation under control. However, I think they will raise a wave against Pashinyan in autumn. It is obvious that Putin does not like Pashinyan, although Pashinyan tries to flatter him by any means. But it is not possible to gain Putin’s favor… Whatever he was afraid of most of all took place in Armenia. Neither money, nor other mechanisms could keep the nation away from its will. Putin could not have overlooked the fact that this young generation is pro-Western, English speaking, and that it gradually walks away from Russia. The tension that arises from the presence of Russian troops adds up on this. Especially when they act not as friendly forces, but as Americans behaved in Western Europe. Moreover, Pashinyan acts against Collective Security Treaty Organization Secretary General Yuri Khachaturov and Gazprom director in Armenia Kocharyan. They are the Russian pillars in Armenia. I do not know what Pashinyan has told Putin, but Putin never overlooks such things. Pashinyan will face serious troubles: there will be protests, oligarchs, who live in Moscow, will invest huge amounts of money against Pashinyan. He has little time to unite his forces. I think he should have dissolved the parliament as far as he knew the levers. He also did not dissolve the justice system: he wants to imprison Kocharyan, but the old justice system will sabotage his decision. He is doing everything right, but he is not changing the system: it will stop making orders and will work against him.