We don’t know who organized the tragedy of October 27th. As far as why they did it, there are both realistic and unrealistic assumptions. Foreign activities likely played a role here. The “Meghri option” was being discussed at the time to resolve the Artsakh conflict, where Azerbaijan was to provide a road from Meghri to Nakhichevan, and Armenia had to provide a road to Lachin and the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (without the liberated regions). Then-Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan and Speaker of the National Assembly Karen Demirchyan were against this very dangerous plan.
It’s also clear who took advantage of the act of terrorism. When they say that, if October 27th didn’t take place, Armenia would have prospered, there wouldn’t be corruption, and democracy would have been solidified, that is obviously wrong. Karen Demirchyan’s and Vazgen Sargsyan’s teams’ economic strategies did not have anti-corruption and democracy plans, which, by the way, became clear in the aftermath of the shootings. But the loss of those two influential politicians gave way to the authoritarian regime of Robert Kocharyan, which got rid of all economic and political competition. During the parliamentary elections of 2003, the president led two electoral ballots- the RPA’s and Prosperous Armenia’s- and to speak of restraint mechanisms at the time was, simply, laughable.
From approximately May of 2000, when Kocharyan, through very clever tactics, got rid of his independent Prime Minister- Aram Sargsyan- and Defense Minister- Vagharshak Harutyunyan- Armenia was launched into a long-lasting stagnate, stationary phase. The oligarchs and bureaucracy understood who was in charge and when, where, and how much they needed to pay. That’s how they lived for 18 years until the April Revolution of this year.
Perhaps those 18 years can be described by some as an era of stabilization where some good things happened, too, especially economically. There is also some truth to such an evaluation. But those positive occurrences could not overshadow the growing dislike of injustice, the government’s insolence, and its permissiveness. I think that any door-opening instability is better than hopeless stagnation.
Aram Abrahamyan
