Meetings are taking place regarding the resolution of the Artsakh conflict. However, negotiations have not yet begun. The sides are currently “getting a feel” for one another, similar to how the first round of a boxing match goes. But that round is reaching its end, under my impression.
The Azeris’ position, which was formed in 2003 when Ilham Aliyev came into power, is clear. From the Azeri perspective, negotiations began with first a few regions, then 7 regions, then what was formerly considered Nagorno-Karabakh to become a self-governing region. Azerbaijan also demands that the Azeris who were “deported” from their homes be allowed to return.
As the element of compromise, the leadership of our neighboring country stated that, perhaps after all of this, Artsakh should have a high level of self-government. So, they’re basically saying, “Take your army out of our territory, and we’ll think about it.”
I do not think that there is any Armenian in the world who does not understand what consequences this plan will have if it is carried out; this is a plan for the slaughter and deportation of thousands of Armenians. Even more, I am convinced that this would be a threat of death for the Republic of Armenia.
Until the revolution, what did Armenia have to say to oppose this cruel, uncompromising, and overly ambitious position? Of course, different things were said at different times, but the overall intention was the following: Armenia was not against giving up 5, even 7 regions, if the original Nagorno-Karabakh territory were to be given an intermediate position on an international level and then later be given the opportunity to hold a referendum. There is no symmetry between these two positions; the second one is more compromising than the first. Thus, this soft position was held by the side that had the upper hand during the war in 1992-1994, despite the fact that usually the opposite happens. Therefore, we can conclude that our positions in the political, economic, and diplomatic realms have weakened over the past 24 years. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, was able to blind the international community with principles like the Madrid ones, use the “4 formulas” accepted by the UN 26 years ago as their reference (which have nothing to do with the problems of today), and push forward the “removal of troops” plan.
The current prime minister made an important note: the “land in exchange for peace” plan will not be discussed. Now, the next step needs to be taken, and a decision needs to be reached as far as what the Armenian side will discuss: the international recognition of Artsakh as an independent state, or its reunification with Armenia.
We need to counteract ambition with even more ambition, and we need to think about what resources we have to carry out our plans.
Aram Abrahamyan
