Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan, when asked by Aravot Daily to comment on Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statement in response to the threat of the US imposing sanctions on Turkey regarding how the US does not know who it is dealing with because Turkey is not a tribal state, said, “I believe that we should not take Erdogan’s statements seriously. That is his style. His style is improper for a state figure. He insulted Macron and German Chancellor Merkel, but those statements do not have any power. Turkey knows very well that it would be in a very bad situation if the USA decides to impose sanctions.”
Safrastyan spoke about the Turkish-American relations crisis of July-August of 2016 when American pastor Andrew Brunson was arrested due to suspected spying. “Brunson was arrested, and they wanted to exchange him with Fethullah Gulen, who is currently in the USA. The Americans did not agree to the exchange and they imposed personal sanctions against the Turkish ministers of justice and the interior. They also doubled the customs duties on the steel and iron that Turkey exports to the United States. Even the impact of these small and limited sanctions was so great that it immediately led to a 40% devaluation of the Turkish lira. It created a difficult socioeconomic situation in Turkey, and Turkey was forced to quietly release the pastor, who was later accepted by Trump.”
According to the Turkologist, that was the first and last time that the USA imposed sanctions against its NATO ally. “In reality, there is no serious basis or force behind Erdogan’s statements. Turkey is a middle state. It has a middle economy and a lot of dependence on the USA and the West in the military industry. That is simply his style, which is not accepted by international diplomatic platforms. However, he still uses it.”
Rube Safrastyan is convinced that it is possible to restrain Turkey. “At the end of the day, Erdogan is still a world leader, and that state does not have any necessary power. We know that Turkey was able to use its geographical location and world-political opportunities to its advantage in its relations with Europe over the centuries. In the 19th century, England used Turkey as a counterbalance against the Russian Empire. In the 20th century, Turkey was used against the Soviet Union within the framework of NATO.”
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The Turkologist also believes that it is understandable why states have a soft attitude towards Turkey. That country is their ally and, although its leader is not the best, the Western countries and the USA do not see much danger in that. There are also times when problems arise, such as issues relating to Incirlik. “In recent months, there have been reports that the Americans have begun to think seriously about moving the US military base from Incirlik to one of the Greek islands. There are problems, but those problems are being solved, and in general, Turkey continues to be an ally of the United States via NATO.”
Gohar Hakobyan
