According to political scientist Armen Vardanyan, it is necessary to work with the EU and the US to restore the disturbed balance that exists within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group.
According to political scientist Armen Vardanyan, the OSCE Minsk Group is not formally in danger at the moment. The format will remain, but the authority of this format has been weakened. In an interview with Aravot Daily, he noted that Russia is attempting to push forth its own game outside of the Minsk Group. Regarding this, Vardanyan explained, “In a sense, this also encouraged doubt in Azerbaijan regarding the effectiveness of that format. Turkey also made the same claims, saying that the Minsk Group is unable to resolve this issue. Now, it is making the same claims, stating that the Minsk Group was unable to resolve the issue in 30 years, but we were able to resolve it. Therefore, the Russia-Turkey tandem, as well as Azerbaijan, did everything over the years to undermine the Minsk Group format, create a separate format, and push forth their own games.”
According to Armen Vardanyan, they were able to weaken the Minsk Group’s position. Within this framework, the positions of the United States and France were also weakened. They also lost their authority.
We reminded Armen Vardanyan that some activity has been noted among the European side in recent days. For example, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, complained about how Russia and Turkey are pushing the European Union out of the Artsakh issue. He stated, “The European Union must be present in instances where the interests of the Union are at play. That is why it is essential to eliminate gaps in our potential and be present and active in instances where our interests are at play.”
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On December 3rd, the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office Edi Rama announced, “It is necessary to continue the OSCE Minsk Group’s mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution negotiations. Full negotiations must continue so that we can implement the agreements and reach a long-lasting peaceful and bilateral resolution.”
When asked if the EU can change anything now or if the time for that has passed, Armen Vardanyan responded, “That depends on whether or not they understand that they are now in a situation outside of the overall situation. Turkey and Russia kicked them out of the region and this conflict, which also took place in the instance of Syria. In that case, they kicked the USA out, and the issues were resolved between Iran, Turkey, and Russia. It is not a coincidence that the diplomatic leader of Europe also stated that the Karabakh issue is likely to turn into a new stagnation within the Astana format. The goal is for Turkey, Russia, and Iran to turn this conflict into two Astana formats. The European side finally understood that it remained outside and is now trying to return. From this perspective, I also see connections between the Senate and National Assembly of France passing resolutions demanding the necessity of recognizing Artsakh. France is trying to send out a message that the European Union should not remain outside of the game, and it wants to put some pressure on Azerbaijan.”
When asked if these steps will take place or if this new activity in Europe should have happened sooner, Armen Vardanyan said, “Yes, it should have happened earlier. The European side, unfortunately, limited itself to only making announcements while Russia and Turkey were making moves. And in the end, Russia and Turkey divided Artsakh among themselves. Russia took over one part of Artsakh, and the rest is controlled by Azerbaijan and Turkey. The United States’ passive policies of isolationism also played a role. Donald Trump left the United States completely out of this regional conflict, and he was more concerned with the elections during the war. I believe that Joe Biden will change US foreign policy in this aspect as well. Joe Biden said that he will improve relations with the European Union and European allies since those relationships worsened during Trump’s administration. From this perspective, this is a platform for cooperation. The Armenian government needs to work with the EU and US tandem to try and restore the disturbed balance that exists within this framework. The US and the EU will definitely attempt to return to the region to strengthen their weakened positions. In this instance, I believe that their interests and ours coincide.”
Tatev Harutyunyan
