“Would it be so bad if our cargo was shipped to Iran via Nakhichevan and Russia via Azerbaijan?” the representatives of the government and their supporters ask. They want to say that there are some extremist nationalists in Armenia who are against ending the blockade in the region as a result of their emotions and beliefs. Perhaps there are such people, but they are not the problem here. The question instead needs to be whether or not it is possible that the roads have opened for Armenia. And I have serious doubts about this.
I must remind you about what was written in the November 9th announcement. “All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport links between western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with a view to organizing the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles, and cargo in both directions. The Border Service of the FSB of Russia shall exercise control over the transport communication. Subject to agreement by the Parties, the construction of new infrastructure linking the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with regions of Azerbaijan shall be carried out.” I believe that the trilateral agreement recognized our military defeat, and the 9th point should also be viewed within that context. Otherwise, if we were to listen to the government supporters, then it seems as though they’re saying, “It’s great that we lost. At least all roads will open now.”
The statement mentions ALL transport links in general, but in terms of mechanisms, it only speaks about OUR obligations and Russia’s control over a specific route- the Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan road and the construction of new communications necessary for that. That is all that is needed for Turkey and Azerbaijan, and it does not mention anywhere that Azerbaijan must ensure the security of Armenian cargo through its territory and the construction of new roads.
From a political perspective, Armenia’s economic development via open communications is not within the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Instead, they want our roads to become an “appendix.” From an economic perspective, they are not interested in Armenian products or the Armenian market, and transit expenses will not be so much that they will have an impact on Azerbaijan’s budget (by the way, the same is true for us). And, finally, from a psychological perspective, I cannot imagine how Azerbaijani and Armenian officials will communicate with one another as equals, at least not the defeated Armenian officials.
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I’m not saying that these issues are not solvable, or that such cooperation is not possible. I am instead referring to the fact that we should not treat people as if they are stupid and confuse them by speaking about the “advantages of defeat.”
Aram Abrahamyan
