The fact that the Prime Minister and government which brought Armenia to a humiliating military defeat need to resign is obvious to me, at least. However, the opposition (the 17 political parties and the other opposition groups) need to answer the following questions:
1) What political programs will they implement to save the crumbs of Armenian statehood?
2)How do they envision regime change?
During a recent meeting with citizens in the city of Ararat, the 17 parties’ candidate for Prime Minister, Vazgen Manukyan, spoke about the possibility of “capturing buildings and forcing regime change.” In other words, he spoke about doing what Nikol Pashinyan did in 2018. With all due respect, I do not believe that the 17 political parties will be successful in doing that because they are unable to bring tens of thousands of people to the streets. That is the only case in which it is possible to capture buildings, close streets, and finally, have a revolution, without facing punishment.
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But in theory, let’s imagine that a new populist demagogue will arise who will successfully implement those plans. Perhaps that will resolve any problems?
Aravot Daily interviewed Pashinyan’s supporters in Ararat. They believe that Pashinyan is not to blame for anything, and he should continue to lead the country. They are not fakes, nor did they receive special training. They are representatives of our people who make judgments based on their knowledge and information. That group of people has a Prime Minister who corresponds to their ideas of homeland and statehood.
What results was basically written in the Bible. “Leave them; they are blind guides. If the blind lead the blind, both will fall into a pit” (Matthew 15:14). Peter Briegel the Elder has a wonderful painting depicting this. Now imagine that those blind people begin to be led by another blind person; someone who came to power in the streets cannot have other qualities. Who will that leader govern and lean upon? Of course, that same group. If anything will change as a result, things will only get worse. That leader’s revolutions and riots will make our situation worse.
The following three scenarios are more realistic.
1) Snap elections are not held. Pashinyan remains in power until 2023 and, most likely, will be reelected during the following elections.
2) Pashinyan will hold snap elections this year. He will stay Prime Minister, and it is almost 100 percent likely that he will be reelected.
3) Snap elections will be held under another Prime Minister, and in that case, the opposition will have some chance. But even in that case, I do not exclude the possibility that the aforementioned group consists of the majority of Armenians, and they will once again vote for Pashinyan. On one hand, that means no one can doubt his legitimacy, but on the other hand, it means we cannot have a state in this historical phase.
Aram Abrahamyan
