The new President of the United States, Joe Biden, delivered his first foreign policy speech at the Munich Security Conference, which was primarily addressed to his European allies. Trump’s ‘Eurosceptic’ period, to put it mildly, if not disgraceful, has wreaked havoc in the Trans-Atlantic alliance, and in that sense, the Biden administration’s starting positions are not the best for resuming dialogue. However, it is obvious that European leaders have great expectations from Washington.
“America has returned. The Trans-Atlantic alliance has returned,” President Biden announced.
Regarding the South Caucasus, it is obvious that the strategic importance and value of our region are only growing. However, this certainty is still insufficient in terms of specific priorities and the algorithm of certain steps being taken. The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to Georgia, and in the light of recent domestic political developments in Tbilisi, Washington has made it quite clear what its expectations are and what is unacceptable, but nothing more. In any case, the question remains as to how long Georgia will wait for Washington’s response, when in December, a question was directly asked about the need for a US military presence in the country. Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not say anything in Tbilisi.
Washington has not directly addressed Azerbaijan and its ruling dictator, along with his “first Vice President” wife, who is still in an oil and ‘victory’ coma and enjoying the ‘laurel wreath’ with Erdogan after waging their criminal war. However, both the context of President Biden’s speech and the joint letter of more than a hundred members of the US Congress to Secretary of State Blinken and Pentagon Chief Austin testify to the mood in the American establishment. In general, Washington does not need their oil or caviar diplomacy, and it does not have any illusions regarding Azerbaijani ‘democracy,’ especially when American foundations and the Freedom Radio bureau have been closed in Azerbaijan for a long time. Even more, members of Congress expect the President and government to provide Armenia and Artsakh with widespread support, democratic support, and sanctions against the leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan and their supporters, the ‘unfreezing’ of Resolution 907 and the cessation of military cooperation, the recognition of Artsakh’s right to self-determination and the final clarification of its status, the public recognition of the Armenian Genocide by President Biden, etc. “The United States cannot allow Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan to dictate and dominate the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh alone,” the well-known letter from members of Congress reads.
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Of course, the wind that blew across the Atlantic to our region is in line with Armenian interests, but the question remains as to how strong the sail on our broken dock is to move our ship out of the deadlock. It is also obvious that no matter how positive the signals and intentions are, the important thing is the actions that are taken. In any case, the ‘litmus’ for us has been and remains Georgia, which is not only a way to the West, but also the most important struggle to make our political interests a reality. Of course, the possible breakthrough in the direction of Iran, which might make the Persian Gulf-Black Sea mega project possible, is also encouraging.
However, the key to all opportunities is inside Armenia. America can support us, but it will not fight corruption, crime, open opponents of democracy or neutralize those who conspire against our sovereignty and local proxies of hybrid war for us. It will not overcome provincialism, laziness, and stupidity if the government, political classes, and society do not realize the absolute priority in maintaining a free and independent state.
Ruben Mehrabyan
“Aravot” daily
