Political analyst Armen Vardanyan believes that if one of the sides demands the departure of the Russian peacekeepers, the Russian side will use the opponent to aggravate the situation and ensure that Russia remains in the region.
In an interview with Aravot Daily, we reminded Vardanyan of claims made by a member of the Russian State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots, director of the Institute for Diaspora and Integration (CIS Institute), member of the Foreign Policy and Defense Council, and member of the Public Council of the Russian Federation, Konstantin Zatulin, that although Russia officially will be in Artsakh for five years, it will stay in Artsakh forever.
Armen Vardanyan used historical examples and explained that similar instances happened twice in history when Russian unexplainably left the region. He explained, “Russia’s goal is to stay in Artsakh forever, but I am not convinced that this will take place. For example, in 1917 after the Russian Revolution, Russia left the Transcaucasus. This also happened after the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia’s goal was to deploy forces in Artsakh in order to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan under its control. The Artsakh conflict is the only conflict in the post-Soviet Union where Russian troops were not present. There are deployed Russian troops in Ukraine, Dombas, Moldova, Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, which is why those countries are not able to integrate with the West more. In other words, the Russian troops are not peacekeepers. Instead, they play a more controlling role.”
According to Armen Vardanyan, that is why the Russian side was doing everything to ensure that the Lavrov Plan was implemented so that Russian troops could be deployed in Artsakh. In the end, that is what happened.
Read also
Based on the fact that Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises will take place in Sparta, Turkey, and the Armenian government is not taking any noticeable steps to maintain security, and instead, we are listening to statements such as ‘Who said that those territories were Armenian?’, will it be possible for Russia to leave the region? Armen Vardanyan responded, “I think that Russia will stay for the next five years. After that, it will do everything in order to stay. If one of the sides dares to demand that the Russian side leave the region in accordance with what is outlined in the November 9th agreement, I think that they will artificially create the type of situation that would prevent them from leaving. If one of the sides makes such a demand, Russia will use the opponent to aggravate the situation and make it so that Russia remains in the region.”
When asked how he would comment on statements made regarding the Syunik Province, Armen Vardanyan said, “Russia pressured us to hand over the seven regions to Azerbaijan. According to that logic, if the seven regions are to be handed over, that would also include the regions of Kubatlu and Zangelan, which border the Republic of Armenia. But it is surprising that the Armenian government simply handed over hundreds of kilometers, and we did not receive anything in return. That is why there are many questions that the government is not adequately responding to, and we are always caught in the middle of a surprise. For example, it became clear that there was a written document regarding the Kapan-Goris route. Meanwhile, the government had been making statements for a long time that this was a mutual agreement and that no written documents existed.”
According to Armen Vardanyan’s predictions, this intense situation will last a long time if snap elections do not take place in Armenia. The government needs to understand that the only way to resolve the situation is to hold snap elections. According to the political analyst, that will be the only way for this situation to stabilize somewhat. Otherwise, we will have a political crisis for several months, which will include tension, protests, etc.
Tatev Harutyunyan
