Armenia will have its first huge chance of coming out of the post-war crisis within only three months. Of course, it would be naive to think that the crisis would be over, but this is a very necessary step, although not satisfactory, which will also allow the following steps to gain momentum. Therefore, it is very important that the success of this step is not put in danger by the threats that are simply superficial today, about which people have already spoken out.
There are many threats, five of which are the most important, and they are worth talking about separately.
1.The old electoral system. Armenia’s current electoral system was created by the former criminal-oligarch regime as an alleged ‘compromise’ where the proportional party system is combined with the so-called party-rating system. It allowed a struggle of ideas, ideologies, and programs to take place, giving way to a struggle of resources unleashed by different parties and local ‘authorities.’ Given the financial resources accumulated and centralized by the state-occupied criminal oligarchy, it was not difficult to imagine that as a result, this ‘compromise’ would predetermine one possible outcome: “Election bribes would ‘eat’ the people.” That is exactly what happened in 2017. However, they did not take into account that in just one year, the same society, ‘obedient’ with the same money and ‘authorities,’ would unanimously take to the streets and overthrow such carefully organized deception as a system. Ahead of the December 2018 elections, the Republican Party, even at the cost of sacrificing its own chances, stood against the abolition of that ‘rating’ system and the lowering of the threshold. And today, it is already clear that this ‘rating’ system can simply be a source of evil, and not only for the future parliament, but also for the country itself.
2.The misinformation and information terror. This challenge was felt in full-force in the post-war period, becoming a threat to national security. Due to the weak, poorly-organized work of the government, it continues to remain so. And in the period before the elections, it also becomes a threat to the electoral process. There are people in the current Armenian political field who will not hesitate to use this ‘tool’ to discredit and spoil the political atmosphere in the pre-election and, perhaps, the post-election period too. It is obvious that the relevant ‘reliable sources’ in Russia will not be left out of it, the most toxic narcotics of which will be widely disseminated using no less ‘reliable’ means- local news and social networks. Of course, we must fight against misinformation threatening the security of the state, but we must not forget that the ‘antidote’ to misinformation is to ensure our effective information flows and a quick response to events. Therefore, this ‘sleeping’ regime of state information bodies is not promising anything good, especially when it is not difficult to predict that the flow of misinformation will definitely intensify soon.
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3.The judicial system and law enforcement bodies. The post-revolutionary reforms can be considered a failure as these reforms have not reached the judicial system and law enforcement bodies, and this is an axiom, although, in terms of time, this is more so a discussion for the post-election period. But anyway, the government has to do something in the pre-election period connected to the aforementioned bodies. The recent changes in the Judicial and Criminal Codes and the additional powers given to the Supreme Judicial Council will probably allow the judiciary to be adequate in cases of violations, in contrast to the disgrace we witnessed in November of last year and afterward. The law enforcement bodies- the police, NSS, and the investigative bodies- will need to act more operatively to prevent any deviations from the legal process of elections, and in that sense, being tough on the aforementioned bodies is the sacred duty of the current government to society, voters, and taxpayers.
4.The possibility of active terrorism. In a country that witnessed an act of terrorism 22 years ago, the calls for physical revenge- terrorism- which have been voiced in recent months by various irresponsible ‘political’ entities should be taken very seriously. Moreover, they even try to prove that ‘any measure is justified’ for the sake of the result of their small party or group interests. Unfortunately, this is a quote from several people’s public speeches, against many, but not all, of whom criminal cases have been opened. This challenge directly concerns the professionals of the relevant law enforcement agencies, who are well aware that the motives for such criminal activity will multiply during the pre-election period.
5.The apathy of society and the huge segment of disappointed citizens. This is, perhaps, the most invisible threat right now that we will feel in the future if all of its devastating consequences are not given attention today. We have reliable information about this based on the results of opinion polls conducted by the American IRI, according to which the leading Civil Contract has only 32% approval, the Prosperous Armenia party is in second place at 3% approval, and the percentage of people who do not support anyone is greater than the percentage of those who support Civil Contract. And this means that we have a serious problem as it testifies to the distrust of a large part of society towards the possibility of finding solutions through the whole political field and politics in general through elections. It is reassuring that the current high-ranking representatives of the majority not only realize, but also speak out about this challenge. However, this is everyone’s responsibility by and large.
Post-war Armenia will face a huge test, the results of which will determine how the future of our country plays out, and this test is for all of us without exception.
Photo from Armenian Times
Ruben Mehrabyan
“Aravot” daily
