The differences between the tactics of the government and the opposition in the upcoming elections are due to the differences between their audience and the electorate. The main propaganda lever of both My Step and the pro-government groups- Arman Babajanyan, Aram Sargsyan, perhaps Gurgen Arsenyan, Levon Shirinyan, and other figures- will be fear that if it were not for them, the ‘former’ regime would return and continue to steal from the people again. It would be the wolves (them) vs. the wolf-chokers (us).
It must be said that this primitive scheme is quite viable, and there is no doubt that the strategy based on this theory will be effective since hatred towards the ‘former’ regime is widespread. It also simplifies the problem of power. You do not need any plans or visions for the future. You just have to show the scarecrow of the ‘former regime’ and success is guaranteed. It is still unclear whether all of those groups will campaign as part of the My Step list or separately, but it is obvious that their target audience will be the same pro-Pashinyan electorate that lives with the memories of the thieving that took place in the past instead of the current tragic situation.
The opposition’s problem is more complicated: the general picture in that field varies greatly both in terms of the number of parties and the mood of the electorate. Those who sympathize with Prosperous Armenia, Bright Armenia, the 16 parties (which are also very different), as well as this or that ‘pole,’ the views of these citizens are very different, and most importantly, they can hardly be united only by their hatred of Pashinyan. Those people who are driven not by an instinctive hatred, but by certain values and ideas are more strict with their preferred parties. And since there isn’t any uniting ‘rejection,’ artificial alliances cannot add to the electorate here, but dilute it instead.
If a voter wants to vote for, say, the ARF, they will be disappointed if that political party (based on theoretical conclusions) forms an alliance with Bright Armenia because that voter is not only interested in the resignation of the current government, but also in the path our country is going to go on. That is how the opposition electorate differs from the ruling electorate, which is united only by its hatred of the former regime.
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Based on all of that, one of the opposition’s most important tasks is to form alliances, most likely. Otherwise, it will be easy to predict that around 20 opposition parties will participate in the elections, and only 3-4 of them will pass the threshold, and My Step with its satellites will form the stable majority.
Aram Abrahamyan
